Raniere is Breaking Down Physically – Working Hard on His Appeal – as He Awaits Sentencing

Keith Alan Raniere will likely spend the rest of his life in prison,

Prison life is generally boring and monotonous.

Mk10Art painting of Keith Raniere imprisoned by his own brand.

It’s even worse when you’ve already been convicted – and you’re just waiting to find out exactly how much more time you’re going to be spending behind bars.

That’s been Keith Raniere’s life for the past five months.

And he still has two more months to go until he finds out what U.S. District Court Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis deems to be a fair sentence for someone who was convicted of one count each of Racketeering, Racketeering Conspiracy, Forced Labor Conspiracy, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking, Sex Trafficking Conspiracy, and Attempted Sex Trafficking.

Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis is expected to  sentence Raniere in January.

All Raniere knows at this point is that his prison sentence will be somewhere between 15 years and life.

Exactly how long he’ll be in prison – and where he will serve his time – will be decided without his opinion being taken into consideration.


You Can’t Start Counting Down Until You Know How Long You’ll Be in

Once a prisoner knows their sentence, they can start counting down how long it will be until they get out.

Some start keeping track of how many days they’ve been in – with each such day denoted by a checkmark on a piece of paper.

Others create an actual “Countdown Schedule” on which they start by listing the total number of days they expect to be in prison – and then reduce that number for each day they’ve been in (e.g., 1,000, 999, 998, etc.).

Keith Alan Raniere is presently residing at the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, NY.

But Raniere can’t start counting down just yet because he has yet to be sentenced.

And so for him – and for every other prisoner in that same situation – time is really a vague concept right now.

Days tend to get defined by what food is being served for lunch.

Wednesdays are hamburger days – which is one of the most popular lunches served in federal prison.

Hamburger Wednesday

Thursdays are chicken days – another very popular lunch meal.

Saturdays and Sundays always feature some sort of eggs – usually the scrambled kind that are made from some sort of powdered product and that have absolutely zero taste.

But other than recognizing what day it is by the food that’s being served, these prisoners often don’t have any real sense of time.

Today was just like yesterday – and tomorrow will be just like today. That’s life in federal prison.


Meanwhile, Raniere’s Physical Decline Continues

Based on the latest report we’ve received from MDC, Raniere is continuing to experience a variety of physical problems.

His wrist – which was supposedly injured when he slipped on a wet floor in his cell while stretching and practicing his judo moves in the middle of the night – is not healing correctly and will likely need surgery.

But the crack medical staff at MDC have determined that there’s no need to have that surgery done until Raniere gets assigned to his regular prison.

Depending on how bad that wrist injury really is, it’s entirely possible that Raniere could be temporarily assigned to the Fort Devens Federal Medical Center in Devens, MA – which just happens to be where John Tighe has been serving his time.

Fort Devens Medical Facility Center

Talk about ironic…

First, he gets sent to MDC – which is where one of his sworn enemies, Joe O’Hara, spent 28 months.

And now he might end going to Fort Devens – where another of his sworn enemies, John Tighe, can throw him a “Welcome Home” party.


New Diagnosis Indicates Raniere Has Very Little Sense of Smell

In news that will not shock anyone who ever spent any significant amount of time in his presence, it also appears that Raniere has some sort of neurological problem that interferes with his sense of smell.

Known for going days without bothering to shower or bathe, Raniere often smelled like the inside of a garbage dumpster in mid-August.

And his breath could usually be detected from at least 10 feet away.

Raniere has always avoided showers and baths. Painting by Marie White.

Now, based on recent test results, it appears that Raniere actually has very little, if any, sense of smell.

The Bureau of Prisons will probably not do anything to resolve this latest medical problem – which is not considered to be life-threatening.


Still in Gerbil Mode as He Works on Appeal

According to the latest report that we’ve received from MDC, Raniere is still in constant motion as he paces back and forth at MDC.

The only time he sits for an extended period of time is when it’s mealtime – for which he has adopted what has been described as a “Pavlovian response”.

He is often first-in-line for meals and usually tries to cajole the servers into giving him the largest portion available or some extra of whatever is being served.

MK10ART – Raniere’s gerbil treadmill

And Raniere has also been purchasing every sweet-treat that’s available from the MDC Commissary.

All of which has led to a noticeable weight-gain for the now somewhat rotund Raniere.

Maybe he’s going for that Buddha look…


“But My Appeal Is a Slam Dunk”

Raniere has told anyone who will listen that he has “a 100% chance” of getting his conviction overturned because of the numerous “fuck-ups” of Judge Garaufis before and during his trial.

Whether Raniere really believes that to be true is unknown.

He is actively going through the transcripts of the trial to identify “errors” that were made by Judge Garaufis.

And it appears that he really believes that the guilty verdict on all seven counts is going to be magically over-turned by the Second Circuit Appellate Division.

Unfortunately for Keith, the “data” suggests that his odds of winning a complete reversal of his conviction – and on getting a new trial on all seven counts of which he was convicted – is about 25-to 1.

The most recent study of decisions of trial courts in the Second Circuit revealed that only 3.78% of them are overturned on appeal.

Even Raniere, who claims to be a mathematics savant, has to look at those odds – and go “Oh, shit!”

Worse yet is the fact that Judge Garaufis appears to have a very low “overturn rate” – especially on cases that were decided by juries (It’s almost impossible to get hard data on this topic – and we all know how important “data” is to Raniere – but the data we have been able to access suggests that Raniere has little chance of getting the verdict in his trial overturned because of any errors on the part of Judge Garaufis).

So, even though Raniere thinks that he will definitely get a new trial, the odds against that happening are actually pretty high.


One Piece of “Good News” for Raniere

There is, however, one piece of “good news” in the latest report of Raniere’s life at MDC.

He finally has a pair of glasses that work.

Custom Prison Eyeglasses

I’m setting November 20th as the date by which those glasses will magically disappear – much like Raniere’s clothing would magically appear when he was still running the NXIVM sex-slaver cult.

Anyone who is over 18 and who wants to bet whether those glasses are around after November 20th should contact Frank Report in order to arrange for a wager.

I can use the extra money for the upcoming holidays.


About the author

K.R. Claviger


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  • I’ve been watching the documentary about this fucking creep and if I could get my hands on him we could save the state a lot of money! But alas he’ll be in good hands when he’s in federal prison and his dance card will be filled. I only hope he is in the same cell as a sexual predator so that he can get what he deserves a big dick in his ass every day for the rest of his time on earth. Oh that would be such sweet justice

  • I know we can’t be kept “informed of” -or it would spoil his ‘fun’, butt once he’s in the REAL DEAL “ME LOVIN’ LONG TIME” PRISON he’ll get formally “introduced” to THE “BUBBAs on the Block” … NOT exactly *JENNY*s… butt WTF!!

  • It’s entertaining to me that Keith still actively believes that he’s going to get a new trial. Trials are expensive, even the most cut-rate, state appointed attorney type trials. Re-trials aren’t offered unless there’s substantial evidence of judicial malfeasance – (the likes of which a Bronfman-style $1k/per hour lawyer could find I suspect although Keith supposes he is legal genius himself to find such evidence.

    Unless the Bronfman sisters are willing to fork over more millions to him to help buy off the entire American legal system in order to free Vanguard, Keith would do better with his time seeking God and then repenting for his sins… as the next time he leaves prison will be when he leaves this earth and is standing before his Maker

    • I agree. My guess is he won’t be getting out any time soon. In addition, lacking remorse isn’t going to help the situation.

    • It’s still not clear what assets of his own he might have at his disposal, like what he was said to be left by Pam Cafritz, or even his possible share in Clare Bronfman’s island – but it could well run into the millions, and be enough to fund a lavish appeal and more.

      And the Bronfmans may indeed remain loyal to him, though that is also an unknown at this point, and uncertain in the future.

  • Since he preached freedom is not being able to do what you want, at least we know he’s happy and proving his theories true.

    Just opinion.

  • Is anyone concerned about Raniere being raped? Even if his wrist is out of order, it still leaves two eye sockets, ass, mouth, ears, his other hand, arm creases, leg creases…..am I forgetting anything?

  • I find it interesting that KAR is still succumbing to gluttony – only now in terms of food. It’s ironic, considering how closely he dictated his female followers’ diets. Now he is eagerly wolfing down anything and everything regardless of nutritional value. What happened to the monk?

    • Why is a “smelling test” part of a regular prison health check? Does any doctor normally perform such a test? Seems unlikely….maybe Keith is inventing health problems so he can get extra attention?

      Keith could be suffering from.a zinc deficiency, which can cause a loss of the sense of smell. Can he get a multivitamin in prison?😂

  • What do various opinions, about the psycho-sexual warthog with a God complex think about it all, Dr. Watson, Irene Adler, Professor Moriarty? Holmes must be off smoking somewhere, alone.

    Was Raniere acting due to insanity? Or was he able to watch what he was really doing ? Was he out of control? Has he gotten off on being sadistic? Or has he been trapped in his own chaotic web? (Did Nancy Salzman and maybe a few others bamboozle Raniere, all along from a choir loft, up over backstage, knowing he’d never survive?)

    You know, like the secretive witchy wives of a Shogunate, tapping their fingernails, screwing him every once in awhile and waiting to make their moves, on his dried-up jizzed-out entrails? Caught up in his Old Testament dilemma, where the hell to stow his horns and tail. Always too late. Bad poker.

    What about his habitual interest in his 12 little reindeers, his Raniere-driven pedophilia? Taking from ones not yet ready to stand alone? Or has he been lodged, all along, within his own tormented, miserable hell? Was he a gambling addict or did he just wanna lose and then hide the accrued cash? From the Clodumbo sisters, etc. Thanks, Mad Magazine.

    Does anyone ponder whether maybe Keith Raniere “made a deal with the devil,” and he thought he heard the devil speak to him?

    And “the devil” told him, “listen, Keith, I can give you everything you’ve ever wanted the most. You can have all of the women and girls that you want. You can live like an ancient king and be given by me, the power to control your subjects’ minds.”

    Keith began to feel excited, and the satan force said, ” You bet that you, of all men, deserve everything you’ve always wanted. I can guarantee, you shall have all of that and more. More than you can even dream of right now, it can all be yours. You only need to do one thing, and I will grant you everything else, all you want. And eeeeeven more.”

    So who can sell his soul? Does it only ever happen in fairy tales or superhero/horror movies? Maybe in historic dimness, as if it died with Rasputin or the Marquis de Sade? Or Stalin and what’shisname?

    Raniere? Here in this story, he forgot to ask one thing. What did “the devil” mean when he said, “you can have everything you want, and more. And eeeeven MORE.”

    Haha, gotcha. MDC. Involuntary cellbars, eye-to-eye celibacy. A new sentence, with or without a period. And so much more.

    • Scott Johnson aka Yosemite Sam,

      Why are you always insinuating that Claviger has his facts wrong?

      Claviger’s reporting has been shown to be accurate. Many of Raniere’s court appearances have validated Claviger’s credibility.

      Meanwhile Scott…….You have no credibility……..

      …….You don’t even have credit.

        • Scott,

          Well you make total sense……

          Ps thanks for posting the link to the gay advertisement….it pops up now everywhere I go on the web…..

          Congratulations you have actually done something that pisses Mr off, besides insult emotionally defenseless people.

          • I always make total sense…..

            You’re welcome for the gay advertisement, does it make you pop up as well?

            I don’t insult anybody, I just write the facts.

  • Krclaviger,

    Great update!

    I am picking November 27th as the day Vanguard looses his glasses. The day before Thanksgiving.

    My theory:
    All of the inmates will be thinking of the fact that Thanksgiving is the next day. They will be angry and depressed. Vanguard is a great person (target) to have some fun with and vent some anger at, all at the same time. 😉

    I wish we could bet on this. I put up $20.

    Is the contest to who get closer or who gets closest with out going over? Like on Price is Right?

    I am kinda surprised more commentors have not picked a day.

    Thanks for making my Sunday.

    Bangkok’s uncle has pull?

    • About the bet on his glasses. I’m thinking he will get to keep them longer due to his alliance with the skin heads.
      Marie that judo painting of Raniere is hilarious. It almost has a smell factor to it.

      • Peaches,

        Brilliant insight! I forgot about the “the skin heads” protection variable in my calculations.

        Oddly enough, K.R. Claviger seems to have made the same miscalculation as I.

        Peaches, I believe this means you have the lock now on everything from the end of December onwards. No can place bets past December!

        Nice play!

  • I forget the exact quote, but didn’t he say something like, “being free is not being able to do what you want.”?

    So is he free in prison per his very own definition?

    • Fool Me Not,
      I wonder in whose company he was living, to have had a ‘chained up’ existence. No matter though, he’s finally free at last.
      I hope he gets a couple of hard backhands across his head fortnightly!

  • Oh yeah, poor old Vangourd the chunky squash, the Bend-yer-Dick Arnold of human growth potential. Ah-cha! to ALL of the inconveniences, these just desserts.

    Let’s hear a few annoucements from Smarty Pants, crybaby of MDC. What’s he planning next?

    An impacted colon? How he can get his adult diapers? What happened to his eleventy-seventh pair of eyeglasses, and what he can do about that?

    Can you dig it? Cry out the NEW old, bad intentions. Make it loud.

    No expectations, so relax and let it rip. Let it rip.

    • Yeah yeah announcements from the shiteating lowdown dirty consciousness. Like Avon calling, he has always told on himself.

  • I object to the inhumane mistreatment of the cows slaughtered for Raniere’s “Hamburger Wednesday” meal.

  • “Raniere is still in constant motion as he paces back and forth at MDC.”

    Wasn’t that how he resolved all the planet’s disintegrations by walking around the block?

    He absolutely believes he’ll prevail in the appeal. He may not actually believe his own genius drivel – but he definitely believes he can sell his shtick to anyone — when the contraries are out of the way.

    Methinks only when his appeal spirals in flames into terra firma will the true reality take hold.

  • Thanks for the updates, as always.

    15 years is something like 5,472 days, depending on how the leap years fall, so Raniere is going to have a lot of counting to do – and of course it may be a good bit more than that.

    It occurs to me, one of the ways that Raniere used to manipulate his harem and slaves was to claim that he was somehow so mentally or spiritually sensitive that he would be harmed physically if everything in his environment was not exactly right for him – including ultra-skinny, compliant women. But maybe he really is rather fragile, in a more mundane way, as in lacking coping skills and resiliency, and we’re seeing the manifestation of that.

    And I’m sure that like any amateur lawyer, or sovereign citizen, Raniere imagines that he can find a technical mistake, or a couple, and just magically get everything tossed – he apparently has yet to learn how things actually work in the real, and legal, worlds. Lawyers will also play up the chances of pressing even a losing case for their client, so it may partly be that he doesn’t know how to recognize when he’s being played.

      • Nitguy, you are almost getting into nitpicking there! But I nonetheless appreciate your desire for accuracy 🙂

        I subtracted when I should have added. But – but, I also think the answer doesn’t really go down to decimal places, probably particularly not the way the Bureau of Prisons calculates it. It is an interesting question though whether sentences are calculated based on calendar years like we might assume, or more precise and uniform 365 day years – Claviger?

        This piece on the various implications of leap years, suggests the answer may lie in the details of how the penal system deals with time served, in that it comes down to the extra day of a leap year being considered good time for credit towards a sentence – though other references suggest sentences may be calculated in terms of months, regardless of variance in the lengths of months:


        Maybe the world’s third smartest man can figure out how it ought to work and provide an answer, given the time he’ll have. It could even form a cause for an appeal, if he decides the way it’s calculated “is not justice”!

        Oh, and the first leap year in Raniere’s sentence, presumably, will be 2020.

        • Most federal sentences are rendered in months – and as far as the BOP is concerned all months are alike. So, if someone got a 6-month sentence and they reported on January 1sy, the final date of their sentence would be June 30th.

          Good time credits are measured in days – which means that any applicable credits would be applied from June 30th backward: e.g., 10 days of credit would mean that our theoretical prisoner would be released on June 20th.

          If you want to delve into the details of how sentences are computed, go to: https://www.bop.gov/policy/progstat/5880_028.pdf

    • “So it may partly be that he doesn’t know how to recognize when he’s being played.”
      Well, he did get involved with Toni Baloney…

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” Parlato was also credited in the Starz docuseries "Seduced" for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Additionally, Parlato’s coverage of the group OneTaste, starting in 2018, helped spark an FBI investigation, which led to indictments of two of its leaders in 2023.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premiered on May 22, 2022. Most recently, he consulted and appeared on Tubi's "Branded and Brainwashed: Inside NXIVM," which aired January, 2023.

IMDb — Frank Parlato

Contact Frank with tips or for help.
Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083
Email: frankparlato@gmail.com