Raniere Did Not Get a Life Sentence – It Comes With Probation and 12 Conditions When He Is Released in 2121

Following Keith Alan Raniere’s statement to the court at his sentencing hearing, it was time for the judge to sentence the Vanguard.

In a sense, Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis was the Vanguard and the ethicist for defendant Raniere.

I have previously reported much of what the judge said in his sentencing memorandum. See: Judge Garaufis on Why He Sentenced Raniere to 120 Years; Part 1: ‘DOS Operated to Abuse and Exploit Young Women for Sex, Labor, and Financial Gain’

The judge began by discussing what he reviewed in determining the appropriate sentence.

  1. 56 letters submitted in support of Mr. Raniere.
  2. More than 90 victims’ letters
  3. The 14 victims’ statements read at the hearing.
  4. Counsels’ arguments
  5. Testimony introduced at Raniere’s trial.

He recited the charges Raniere was convicted of after a six-week trial over which he presided.

  • Count 1: Racketeering Conspiracy
  • Count 2: Racketeering
  • Count 6: Forced Labor Conspiracy
  • Count 7: Wire Fraud Conspiracy
  • Count 8: Sex Trafficking Conspiracy
  • Count 9: Sex Trafficking
  • Count 10: Sex Trafficking

[Count 3,4, 5, and 11 were dismissed prior to the trial – and were referred to the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the Northern District of New York for appropriate follow-up and prosecution].

He also named the 10 Racketeering acts that the jury deemed to be “proven”:

  1. Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft and Unlawfully Possess Identification, Jane Doe 1;
  2. two acts of Sexual Exploitation of Minor, Jane Doe 2;
  3. Possession of Child Pornography;
  4. Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft;
  5. Conspiracy to Alter Records for Use in an Official Proceeding;
  6. Conspiracy to Commit Identity of Jane Doe 3;
  7. Trafficking and Document Servitude of Jane Doe 4.;
  8. State Law Extortion;
  9. Sex Trafficking and Forced Labor of Jane Doe 5;
  10. Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft of Jane Doe 7.

After a fairly long description of the judge’s view of Raniere’s abuse of women, he told Raniere to “Please stand with your lawyers.”

The judge then sentenced Raniere for his “particularly egregious… campaign of manipulation, exploitation, and abuse, [which] no words can adequately communicate the lasting pain, trauma, and hardship he has caused so many.”

Here was the sentence:

  • Count 1: Racketeering Conspiracy – 40 years, to be served concurrently with the sentence imposed for Count 2 and consecutively with all the other sentences imposed.
  • Count 2: Racketeering – 40 years, to be served concurrently with the sentence for Count 1 and consecutively with all the other sentences imposed.
  • Count 6: Forced Labor Conspiracy – 20 years, to be served consecutively with all other sentences imposed.
  • Count 7: Wire Fraud – 20 years, to be served consecutively with all other sentences imposed.
  • Count 8: Sex Trafficking Conspiracy – 40 years, to be served concurrently with the sentences imposed for Count 9 and Count 10 and consecutively with all the other sentences imposed.
  • Count 9: Sex Trafficking Jane Doe 5 [Nicole]– 40 years, to be served concurrently with the sentences imposed for Count 8 and Count 10 and consecutively with all the other sentences imposed.
  • Count 10: Sex Trafficking of Jane Doe 8 – 40 years, to be served concurrently with the sentences imposed for Count 8 and Count 9 and consecutively with all the other sentences imposed.

Adding up the various sentences results in a total sentence of 120-years in federal prison. That 120-year figure is calculated as follows:

– 40 years for Count 1 & Count 2

– 20 years for Count 6

– 20 years for Count 7

   – 40 years for Count 8, Count 9, and Count 10

– 120 Years Total

In addition to the aggregated 120-year sentence – which, per federal law, is not a life sentence – the judge imposed a variety of post-release conditions of supervision.

Raniere is not to be released until he completes his 120-year sentence. After which he will be on probation for a minimum of five years.

By my calculation, Raniere could get out, with full-credit for good behavior, sometime in March 2120 (That will be 102 years after he was first arrested and incarcerated by the U.S. government).  He will be 159 years old.

Here are the terms of his probation after he released from federal prison:

  1. He must register as a Sex Offender;
  2. He must participate in mental health treatment programs – including those for sexual disorders;
  3. He must pay for these services and any psychotropic medications – or at least cooperate in securing third-party payment for those services;
  4. He must fully disclose all financial information;
  5. He must participate in polygraph examinations;
  6. He must not associate with other convicted sex offenders;
  7. He must not associate with children under the age of 18 unless a responsible adult is present;
  8. He must submit to random inspections of his house, papers and computer devices;
  9. He must not view pornography or child porn;
  10. He must fully disclose all of his financial records;
  11. He must not have contact with any of the named victims of his offenses; and
  12. He must not associate in person, through mail, electronic mail or telephone, with any individual with an affiliation to Executive Success Programs, NXIVM, DOS, or any other NXIVM-affiliated organizations

Raniere plans to appeal the conviction and likely the sentence.


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Frank Parlato


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  • I love Judge G’s mischievous streak. “You won’t leave prison alive. Here’re your probation conditions when you’re released”. 🤔😁😜

  • That’s why it’s nice of Judge Garaufis not to give Keith a life sentence. So if you’re trying to follow the rules, you can come out sooner. The joke aside, I care what his appeal will contain.

    • It’s not an exact science because of all the things that can happen while someone is in prison – but if Raniere served his time without any major incidents, he would earn about 18 years of “good time” credits – which, given his already accumulated “time served” at MDC – would mean that he could be released as early as March 2120.

      • Given the contraband mobile phone, fighting, and threatening the judge, 18 years of “good time” credits seems excessively optimistic.

        • Yeah – Based on his record to date, I doubt that Keith will be able to hold onto all the “good time” he’ll earn while he’s in prison. But the BOP usually starts out by imposing lesser penalties than the loss of “good time”: e.g., a month in the SHU; the loss of phone privileges and computer privileges for a month; etc. (There are numerous ways the BOP can punish without taking away a prisoner’s “good time”). But, for those who really want to know when the Vanguard will be allowed to walk out of prison, I think March 2120 is a good target date – at least for now.

  • So it has been ruled that Raniere is not allowed to communicate with any of his known, still loyal fans or other boo-boos unless it can be done by intra-dimensional, or astral means. Like Santa Claus, huh, Frank?

    Ho ho ho?

      • Thank you for clarifying on the record on how the sentencing was calculated.

        I believe it is clear that he was sentenced neither for running a voluntary sex club nor gold digging.

      • Good question, Frank. 2120 seems reasonable, otherwise.

        Now, Clav, if Raniere has a clone cryogenically frozen in a vault somewhere, would that clone get the same sentence? Or is the clone only responsible for its own crimes not those of the cloned one?

        • I think the clone will only be responsible for its own illegal acts.

          I also think that since it will be in a very different environment than Keith, the clone may start developing some dissimilar characteristics (Nature vs. nurture and all that kind of stuff).

          • But how would we know the authentic Vanguard from clone Vanguard? OMG, do they have the right one?!

    • Shadow, you fail to think outside the box. Maybe he will use all this free time to develop a way of reversing the aging process. It’ll be like Death Becomes Him or even The Curious Case of Keith Raniere. He may have already a patent for this tech pending.

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” In addition, he was credited in the Starz docuseries 'Seduced' for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premieres on May 22, 2022.

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Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083
Email: frankparlato@gmail.com