According to a source who is highly familiar with the investigation into Keith Alan Raniere and Clare Webb Bronfman, the Northern District of NY [NDNY] is planning to indict the two leaders of Nxivm.
Raniere and Bronfman may be charged as soon as November, the source said.
Charges will include the four charges that were dismissed in the Eastern District of NY [EDNY] because of jurisdiction. The crimes occurred in the NDNY.
These charges are:
Sexual Exploitation of a Child – [Camila] – Keith Raniere.
Sexual Exploitation of a Child – [Camila] — Keith Raniere
Possession Of Child Pornography – Keith Raniere [He possessed nude pictures of Camila when she was 15 years old.]
Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Clare Bronfman and others.
Other crimes, including immigration fraud, tax evasion, additional racketeering charges, and various sex-related crimes are still under investigation. Other defendants, such as Emiliano Salinas, Sara Bronfman, and Rosa Laura Junco are considered potential targets.
While it makes little difference to Raniere, who likely faces a lengthy sentence for the charges he has already been convicted of, if he faces additional charges, it may make a substantial difference to the future of Clare Bronfman.
Sentencing guidelines for Bronfman are 21-24 months for her conviction in the EDNY. She also paid a $6 million fine. With the additional charge [or more charges], her prison time may double.
Judge Nicholas Garaufis has postponed sentencing dates for all the defendants. They were originally scheduled for July and September. There is no set date for sentencing.
Our source tells us that the judge plans to sentence them in late October or early November – and that the postponements were caused by delays in getting the “Pre-Sentencing Reports” from the U.S. Probation Department.
It is believed the judge plans to sentence them in this order:
- Nancy Salzman
- Kathy Russell
- Clare Bronfman
- Allison Mack
- Lauren Salzman
- Keith Alan Raniere
They will not all be sentenced on the same date.
While they await sentencing, all of them are under home arrest [some can go out by day] except Raniere who is still in custody at the Metropolitan Detention Center.
He has served 15 months of his sentence, awaiting trial, during the trial and post-conviction awaiting sentencing. By law, the minimum sentence he can get is 15 years for sex trafficking alone.
Our source tells us that Raniere will likely be held at MDC after sentencing until he is charged by the NDNY.
In terms of sentencing, the judge has great discretion.
The “Pre-Sentencing Reports” prepared by the U.S. Probation Department and letters sent to him [both pro and con from interested parties] and his own observations at trial can influence his sentencing decisions.
There are also sentencing guidelines which he is not bound to follow. Optics might also guide him.
His sentencing decisions will be highly publicized.
Judge Garaufis won’t be publicly criticized if he gives anyone a harsh sentence, but he might be condemned if he lets someone off with no prison time.
Lauren will almost certainly get a lighter sentence than Allison Mack even though they both pleaded guilty to the same two crimes – racketeering and racketeering conspiracy.
My estimation of sentencing guidelines:
Clare: 21-24 months.
Kathy Russel: 6-12 months.
Lauren: 24-36 months.
Nancy 24 months.
Raniere 40 years.
The judge might also decide to be lenient. Probation reports can give him justification for exercising leniency.
.I predict it will work like this.
The lighter the sentence for the women, the heavier the sentence for Raniere.
Since he will likely be sentenced last, we will make the following predictions:
If all the women get sentenced within their sentencing guidelines, Keith will get 30-40 years.
If the judge goes upward on the women sentencing them to longer prison sentences than the guidelines, Keith will get 40 years.
If he makes a downward departure and sentences the women to less than the guidelines – and particularly if any of the women are spared prison time – then the judge thinks they are victims of Raniere and his sentence for Raniere will be 50 – 70 years.
Raniere will be 59 on August 26, 2019.
For readers who are just now catching up with news on Raniere, Vanguard Week has been canceled this year at Silver Bay.