Guest View: The odds of Raniere being convicted are slim

By Smith

I’m not sure how useful it is to speculate on where Keith Raniere’s incarceration will happen. There’s a good chance Raniere will never be convicted.

On the one hand, Raniere has excellent council and it would be wrong to assume recent events will play much of a role in his defense. It’s very likely NXIVM adherents will be lining up to testify their actions were consensual and that will make the sex trafficking crimes tough to prosecute.

I believe prosecutors will have a much easier time with the money laundering charges, but – even then – he could end up on probation or in a white collar prison. All that seized evidence might do more to incriminate others than Raniere. He engaged in a lot of behaviors designed to disguise his actual role in the affairs of NXIVM. There’s a good chance he actually did insulate himself from prosecution and others are going to take the fall.

On the other hand, it doesn’t sound like Raniere is faring well in prison. One of the things I know is that pretrial detention is very hard on people. There’s a psychology to being incarcerated where one must give up hope of eventual release to accept their present surroundings. It does not sound like Raniere is anywhere close to making that turn.

Being detained for extended periods without being convicted does something to people, akin to a fugue state. The prisoner still believes there’s a chance of being restored to previous life circumstances while simultaneously embracing the despair all prisoners encounter over the loss of freedom and personal dignity. This dread builds over an extended period as prisoners try to reconcile those wildly competing worldviews, you just can’t imagine how important an internally-consistent worldview actually is.

The response to a perceived gap is often self-harm. It happens fast, like a switch. One day, you’re with someone who seems very optimistic about the future, the next, you find out that person checked out when no one was looking. While I don’t have any data to support this, it always seems like it’s the smart ones (or the ones who think they’re smart) who are the most vulnerable. I think they feel an immense sense of failure over not being able to convince others of their innocence and it just consumes them.

That’s why I say the odds of Raniere ever being convicted are slim. There’s a better chance his council gets the charges thrown out, or he does himself in, or both – offing himself after getting out and finding his little empire is gone and no one wants anything to do with him.

About the author

Frank Parlato


Click here to post a comment

Please leave a comment: Your opinion is important to us! (Email & username are optional)

  • I am optimistic that, 1. He will either be incarcerated for the rest of his life or 2. He will end his life shortly after getting out. Win win.

  • 20 years of constant videotaping must make you sloppy, if enough damaging video just from the last few years is allowed in and there is no reason for the judge to prevent it. I don’t see a jury letting him walk. But I’ve always thought it would be the financial crimes which I don’t consider white collar when crossing borders that the feds will put their strongest efforts into.

  • I agree with Darth VanDouche, and I maintain that Raniere’s own text messages are what are going to convict him.

    Everyone is always convicted by their own words.

    That’s why a right to remain silent exists.

  • The man is a narcissistic sociopath. If there is a slim chance he doesn’t get convicted of his own self-inflicted evidence against himself and gets out, he’ll simply bask in his own smugness that he’s a genius who “beat the system” and go back to doing what he’s always done. These kind of people do not change.

  • As soon as I saw the author “Smith” didn’t know the difference between “council” and “counsel”, I knew the author had little to offer in the way of useful analysis.

  • The writer of this article is very misinformed.

    Raniere has decades of emails from his Yahoo account that will prove his crimes. Text messages he sent and videos of him spreading his beliefs.

    He was even stupid enough to forward incriminating encrypted emails to his Yahoo account after he attempted to go off grid his last month in Mexico.

    Anyone who was on “the Nxivm stripe path” can testify that no one did anything without Raniere’s stamp of approval.

    Not everyone who was involved in the criminal enterprise of Nxivm is going to be willing to take the fall for him. The prosecution will have the number of flippers they need to put Raniere away for years.

  • Gosh, it’s an honor to have a comment promoted like that.

    One thing to add, about that fugue state. That’s the reason prisoners usually don’t want frequent contact with people they knew on the outside. Reminders of how their life was before prison conflict with the life they now live, to the point where focusing on the realities of imprisonment becomes a way of protecting one’s own psychological landscape.

    Raniere doesn’t have this right now. In all likelihood, he’s noodling over his defense and the possibility of somehow avoiding a long stretch. He’s working up wild fantasies that hold other people accountable for his actions and thinking about how plausible a jury might find his stories. He might actually believe these charges are someone else’s fault and that person is the one who belongs in jail. But he is doing everything he can, rational and otherwise, to preserve this sense of self where he’s some hero saving the world. That’s just human nature.

    The closer Raniere gets to his actual trial date, the more this situation will be working against him, in terms of who he sees himself as being. When he is actually confronted with evidence of his misdeeds in court, regardless of whether or not he’s ultimately convicted, that is going to have a big impact on who he is as a person. There’s a pace to all trials where people are forced to make decisions about whether to save themselves or hang others out to dry. You don’t get a lot of time to think about it, you do what’s in your nature. No one is really innocent, it’s just whether or not you were convicted.

    To the NXIVM people that frequent this board, it’s very true to say prison changes the prisoner. Regardless of whether or not he’s sent to jail, Keith Raniere is not coming back. The person who emerges will be very different from the one you revered, disabused of the illusions he had of himself after shanking his fellows on the dock on to diminish responsibility for his own actions.

    One does not use tech reboot from that. One simply lives with the horror or what they have done, there’s almost no difference whether or not that life is lived behind bars.

  • I have to laugh at the low intelligence used in writing this assessment.

    1) It doesn’t matter if Keith has 100 women testify that he’s never raped them. Every rapist in history can produce a list of women that he copulated with consensually, LOL. Just like every murderer can produce a list of dozens of witnesses who will testify in court that he never murdered them, LOL.

    2) The women who testify for the prosecution (to being raped) cannot be nullified by 3rd party women who were not present during their rape. It doesn’t work like that. If that weren’t the case, every murderer could be acquitted simply by producing several people who testify that he never murdered them, therefore he must not be a murderer. 🙂

    3) Keith’s own text messages show that he was the grandmaster of the DOS slave system and that all slaves reported to him. He even admitted to ordering a slave to get a “collateralized” life vow (blackmail based life vow) before he would tell her any more details about the DOS slave system. His own words cannot be changed by his attorneys. He created the blackmail system that was used to ensure these sex slaves did what he wanted. The jury will read his own words in his emails. That’s game over.

    4) The prosecutors will have dozens of witnesses who testify to what Keith did. They’ll have tons of emails too.

    *The person who wrote this article is — in my own personal opinion — a RETARDED shithead who’s barely smarter than idiots like Flowers and Heidi the middle aged attention-whore (two retarded cunts who have IQ’s roughly equal to that of a donkey, but who nonetheless hate each other with a passion).

    I can’t believe Frank published this shit.

    • Just as Frank posted what you wrote, he simply posted someone’s opinion. It is crazy that as tech savvy as Nxivm claimed to be they used their phones for everything. How incredibly stupid. They got used to getting away with too much for too long and now it’s going to sink them.

    • Not sure why you are mentioning me, as I would be the first person to agree that Smith is illogical. I also posted previously about the illogival Brett Kavanaugh defence (“these women say i didn’t rape them so that proves I’m not a rapist”) so if you’ve read what I’ve said before you would notice I hate illogical statements, like those written by Smith and by Heidi.

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” Parlato was also credited in the Starz docuseries "Seduced" for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Additionally, Parlato’s coverage of the group OneTaste, starting in 2018, helped spark an FBI investigation, which led to indictments of two of its leaders in 2023.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premiered on May 22, 2022. Most recently, he consulted and appeared on Tubi's "Branded and Brainwashed: Inside NXIVM," which aired January, 2023.

IMDb — Frank Parlato

Contact Frank with tips or for help.
Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083