Bail Package: Did Raniere leave for Mexico to be with his son – or to run?

This is the second part of my rebuttal to Keith Raniere’s bail package.

Marc Agnifilo, Keith Raniere’s attorney, made an argument in his second bail bond motion that Raniere went to Mexico, not to flee from the jurisdiction of federal court, but because he wanted to be with his baby son and the mother of his son.

Excerpts of Agnifilo’s arguments are in BOLD type.  My comments are in regular type.

Nxivm …. challenges … existing belief systems, and even what it means to believe something.

NXIVM teachings normally confuse followers so that they tend to not know what they believe, except that they believe in Vanguard. However, even a Nxian might find it hard to believe Raniere went to Mexico for any other reason than to hide from the law.

Mr. Raniere … does not pose … a risk of flight.

AUSA Moira Penza, at the last bail bond hearing in June, said to Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis, “Your Honor…  we do believe that the risk of flight is significant in this case.”

Judge Garaufis agreed. He said in June, “The Court finds that the government has shown that the defendant is a flight risk.”

There is no basis to believe he will do anything but fight this case, in keeping with his character.

We’re talking about a man charged with sex trafficking, who knowingly had women branded with his initials. A man who consistently lied to women over the years about being monogamous, telling them – they were number 1 and that the other women around him were merely his students; telling those who desired motherhood that they would have an avatar baby with him. None of these women had children with him. All of them found out sooner or later that he cheated on them. Some of them left and some of them stayed. This cannot possibly be the mark of a man of character.

Mr. Raniere did not flee the United States for Mexico. 

Mr. Raniere did not leave the country because of The New York Times article, but rather came back into the country the day the story was published.

No one knew in advance what day the New York Times story would be published. That was a decision made by the editors of the New York Times. It was based in part on the news of the day. The story had been written and filed. It had gone through legal.  It was not “spot” news.

The New York Times held the NXIVM story until the time there was a “news hole” in the print edition suitable for this story. It was to be a front-page story. Raniere had no way of knowing when the Times story would be published, when he came back from his three-day trip to Mexico. On the evening he returned, the story appeared online. It appeared in print the following day.

He stayed in Albany until November 10, 2017 to be at his deceased long-time partner, Pamela Cafritz’s home on November 7, 2017, the one-year anniversary of her passing.

I find it hard to believe Raniere came back from Mexico, or stayed in Albany longer, to be on hand for the one year anniversary of Pam Cafritz’s death. He inherited her estate and, on or about the day she died, if you count nine months from her death, to the day his baby was born, he was having sex with Mariana and got her pregnant.

I suspect he had other reasons for coming back to Albany on October 17, 2017. He stayed for three weeks and four days. It may be that he originally planned to return to Albany and stay, as he had for 30 years. Maybe he meant to leave his baby mamma and kid down in Mexico. He returned to Albany, however, to be greeted with the bombshell NY Times story – followed by a lot more media attention.

His followers must have been in a state of shock and fear. There was worse to follow. Within three weeks, with news stories popping up almost daily, including in the local hometown paper – the Albany Times Union – there was scrutiny on his group like there had never been before.

The scrutiny – and the shocking allegations caught the attention of the FBI – not in the Northern District – which had overlooked Ranier’s criminal enterprise for years – but in New York City – the Eastern District. They began interviewing people. News like that spreads fast. NXIVM is a network and a lot of people – even those who have left speak to those who are still in. He heard about it. It is not disputed he knew the FBI was looking at him. He retained an attorney to help check out what the nature of this investigation was about.

I doubt he planned to leave Albany for Mexico much in advance. I suspect he assessed the situation as dire – for him – hopped on a plane and vamoosed.

Keith Raniere with Mariana Fernandez and baby Kemar in San Pedro Garza Garcia, a suburb of Monterrey.

Mr. Raniere traveled back to Mexico to be with his three-month-old son who was with the mother as she was awaiting a new visa. Mr. Raniere traveled back to Monterrey, Mexico, to be with them.

I don’t buy it. I personally doubt he left his organization, and all the people who depended on him, at this crisis moment in NXIVM – with worldwide media condemning them – to be with his son and baby mamma. They were likely safe in Mexico- which is her native country. They had many friends in Mexico; people who would be only too glad to help the mother of Vanguard’s child if she needed it. He had all the money he needed between Bronfman and Cafritz money.

But there was grave danger to his organization in Albany.

Raniere’s attorney, Marc Agnifilo, takes great pains to describe this Socratic leader – who cares so much about respect and love – and yet at the first whiff of trouble – real trouble – he leaves the people of NXIVM behind – the ones who paid to attend his 10-day birthday celebration [called Vanguard Week] – to face the challenges alone –  and he and his wealthy heiress, Clare Bronfman, flew on a private jet, off to Mexico.

He left to be with his baby son? He showed no similar solicitude for his first known child – Gaelyn – who was born in 2006.  At that time, Raniere lied to followers, telling them this child was a foundling, whose father was unknown and whose mother died at childbirth.

When things were going well – back in 2007, when he had all the Bronfman money he could spend and all the women he could handle, he denied the paternity of his first son. He told the NXIVM community a lie about his parentage. He forced the mother of his child to lie and say her own child was not hers but adopted.

In the long litany of Raniere’s unethical behavior, this one galls me perhaps the most.  Consider the awful, psychologically destructive impact to the child this could have: the boy grows up – with all the people around him – and himself – believing he is adopted and his mother died while giving birth.

When all the time, his mother is not dead but raising him, and his father lives nearby and is the leader of the community in which he lives.

I was there. I witnessed it. I saw the child many times. I heard this lie told many times. I did not know it was a lie then. I remember feeling sorry for the child and how, when he grew up, it would be with the consciousness that he had obtained life as his mother lost hers. But right before the community was his mother taking care of him [living a lie] and being forced to lie to everyone – to protect Raniere, so that he would not lose some of his followers who believed he was celibate, and some of the choice women he promised that he would father for them an avatar baby.

Sometime later, he admitted the child was his son, but only after the mother fled with Gaelyn.

In a letter to the court, in one of their many lawsuits, NXIVM attorney Robert Crockett told the court that the mother was in hiding as the result of a custody dispute with Raniere involving her son, Gaelyn.

In 2014, the New York State Police arranged a series of safe houses for mother and child to stay and moved them out of the Northeast.  The mother has full, sole legal custody of Gaelyn. The reason for that is that Keith was not on the birth certificate.

The mother fled, she said, because she was concerned about Gaelyn’s welfare. The mother said, “Keith was experimenting on him. I had to get Gaelyn away.”

Fast forward to November 2017. This ethical, brave, honorable, loving man, left his followers alone at the worst moment in NXIVM history – when the media is condemning them and the FBI is investigating – to go to Mexico to be with his youngest son.

When the organization – this noble organization – needed its leader to shine and lead, he fled.  We are to believe that Keith left for Mexico not because he was under criminal investigation and likely to be charged and arrested in the USA, but to be with his baby son.

When things were tough, Raniere left his followers, and went to Mexico to be with his son?

I don’t believe it.

I wrote in Frank Report -in December 2015, addressing my words to Clare Bronfman and Sara Bronfman, “as you continue to fund this conniver of a cowardly man, ask yourself what your life would be like if your own father had … told you that when you were born your mother died giving you birth and that he was not your father?  And that your mother was not your mother but adopted you.  Sara, you have a child now. Ask your husband, ask yourself: Would you lie to your child the way Raniere did?”


Stay tuned for Part 3…

And in the meantime, to the guards at MDC: Guard our Vanguard well.

About the author

Frank Parlato


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  • Raniere can dress it up anyway he likes. He’s a rapist, a paedophile, a thief, the head of a sizeable criminal racket. No amount of canting with miserable german philosophy or esoteric eastern spirituality will change that. Could his endless bollocks confuse and confound the US legal system? surely not. Even his own defence can barely get the hang of it. Agnifiglio might be ’embarrassed’ about writing the WHOLE bail app. doc. himself, but Im sure he’s pleased with the overall ‘exchange of value’ received for his services.
    Is raniere a dutiful father? Of ALL the lies this evil pimp has told, that has to take the biscuit.

  • What about Thor, isn’t he the child of creepy Keith Rainere with Some actress named Kristina Loken. Or a name close to that. Does Rainere have a history of visiting this poor kid. What a legacy to leave your child. Um. Yes your father was a cult leader and a scumbag. When he’s older I’m sure he can do DNA maybe with one of his brothers if Rainere is tied up.
    I know your not supposed to write about Loken but her story is already out there.
    Is it deception that we can obviously tell Rainere wrote the first half of the bail letter but Marc signed it? Or is that acceptable for highly paid attorneys to do this. I can see Keith refusing to pay for half the billing time since Agnifilo didn’t write it.

    • Don’t talk about Thor. Kris knows what she has. No one should be allowed to speak of the child. Enough is enough

      • Pea, worry about your own posts, we now know who you are. Thankyou again for verifying so Thor is Raineres child. Another sad little boy without a real father.

      • Pea, when people intentionally put themselves in the public eye, sadly they lose their privacy. I am sorry for the child .

  • When witnesses are questioned in a public forum how will they stand up to questioning?

    Wasn’t their participation with Keith and Nexium a choice?
    Aren’t they adults capable of making decisions?
    Are they really victims of big, bad, abusive Keith or voluntary companions along for sex and something they couldn’t get from another man?
    Were they coerced and did they get something out of the interactions as well?

    Agnifilo will hammer away at the witnesses with questions like these. And, if Nancy Salzman gets on the stand for the state, he will have a different set of questions:

    Describe the history and evolution of your relationship with Keith?
    How long were you loyal to Keith?
    When did your loyalty change?
    What made it change? What did the prosecution offer you?
    Aren’t you scared for yourself at 63 years old and your daughter and you can tolerate the thought of prison so you’ve all of a sudden are turning the tables on Keith?

    I don’t think Agnifilo is too worried about the financial crimes. Tax evasion, money laundering, fraud and extortion are usually all thrown together at anyone who commits a financial crime. It’s important to evaluate how significant the actual infractions were (how much $, how many infractions) vs.getting caught up in the drama of big words that possibly may not amount to much. Keith is not a drug lord, for Christ’s sake. The government could theoretically arrest almost every business owner for tax evasion, fraud and money laundering and everyone knows it.

    • Then it’s time the government did just that. The IRS does not give the lower to middle class any breaks I can prove that. So what fuck over those that can’t afford high powered attorneys and let those with money get away with tax fraud. It’s time to stop these practices. Think of the legit money to be gained not the bribes.

    • LOL.

      Look dummy, how do you think the jury’s gonna react when they see Keith’s private emails instructing a senior slave to recruit a junior slave VIA BLACKMAIL COLLATERAL to serve as Keith’s “fuck toy”?

      Keith himself uses the word “collateralized LIFE slave” in that email — or in other words, he only wants sex slaves who have given NXIVM damaging ‘blackmail collateral’ which could harm themselves or their families if released.

      If they were willing sex partners, there’d be no need to demand blackmail collateral.

      Duh. 🙂

      Just ‘holding’ that collateral over their heads, even if never released, is coercive blackmail which NULLIFIES CONSENT to sex. That’s game over, my friend.

      Agnifilo just won’t be able to explain that away. 🙂

      How do you think the jury’s gonna react to the OTHER countless emails from Keith which the government hasn’t even released yet. Keith’s own private emails will show the jury that he’s a sick and twisted sexual blackmailer and deviant.

      Do you really think the jury will ignore all that? Duh. 🙂

      That jury will see Keith and Allison as DEVIANT sexual blackmailers when they go back for deliberations.

      There’s just no need to ‘hold’ blackmail material on people IF they were willing partners.

      You only hold blackmail material if you’re coercing people and trying to make sure that they never refuse your requests or leave you.

      Duh. 🙂

      Your hero is going down. Sorry to make you sad. 🙂

      • Exactly, just holding that collateral over their heads. Imagine the moment they realized it wasn’t asked for to make them accountable as the female friend who lied to them to join DOS said, that it was actually to trap them in a hell they didn’t know how to escape. Bastards.

      • Ok. I admit it. I’m a total idiot!

        Keith and those that side with them face a long, hard road to convince anyone they are innocent.

        Keith is likely a sociopath and the people that followed him were weak, lost, idealistic fools.


    • Raniere is a con man. Everything he has done from Consumer Buyline on has been a con. A fraud.

      Fraud is illegal.

      DOS crossed the line from mere fraud to outright blackmail. Fradulant initial pitch: give me blackmail material before I tell you anything about DOS (except that it is the best thing I’ve ever done, and that you will ever do). Followed by blackmail: give me more blackmail material, or I will release what you have already given me.

      It’s really that simple. Case closed.

  • People are wondering why Keith’s attorneys keep filing these ridiculous sounding motions regarding his bail, which often recite the most untrue statements imaginable — stuff that would make Pinocchio blush.

    Just generating additional billable hours?

    That’s likely part of it.

    But in reality that’s not the ‘main’ reason.

    Firstly, Keith controls what motions are filed and what they say —- since he’s too narcissistic not to require his approval of everything his attorneys file on his behalf.

    The attorneys may care about billable hours but Keith doesn’t.

    The REAL reason Keith keeps filing these ridiculous sounding motions — filled with nonsensical bullshit — is because THAT’S ALL HE HAS LEFT.

    In football, it’s called a Hail Mary pass.

    If you have no way to win except throwing a Hail Mary and hoping for a miracle, then god damn it, that’s exactly what you’ll do. 🙂

    Keith has NOTHING LEFT in his life — other than to file Hail Mary motions and hope for a miracle.

    -He’s hit rock bottom.

    -He’s locked up in fucken prison.

    -His freedom is gone.

    -His access to millions is gone.

    -His daily pussy is gone.

    -His pizza and hot sauce is gone.

    -His status as Vanguard is gone.

    -Even V-week is gone.

    -Nightly volleyball is gone.

    -His worldwide reputation is now one of a pervert and sexual deviant.

    -Even guys like Salinas and Betancourt are distancing themselves from Vanguard.

    -He’s looking at 15 years minimum in prison.

    -The other inmates are treating him like a prison bitch and breaking his glasses.

    -Even his custom glasses are gone, having been replaced with standard issue prison glasses which give him headaches.

    -Oh, and his rodent feet keep getting cut on sharp objects on the prison floor.

    *Life is miserable for Vanguard.

    His ONLY option is to throw a Hail Mary and hope for a miracle.

    That’s what these motions are.

    The motions themselves aren’t even serious motions, they’re just a manifestation of Keith’s inner soul screaming out for a miracle to happen.

    It’s not billable hours fueling these motions — it’s simply Keith’s most primal fears fooling his brain into thinking that he actually sees an oasis in the desert.

    Keith will not only approach that mirage, but he’ll fucken drink the sand and pretend it’s water.


    …since that’s all he has left. 🙂

    • This I agree with. These stupid letters worked for years in Nxivm, he just hasn’t realized the real world doesn’t like him and have no intention of falling for his bullshit. And there’s way more of us than him!

  • Frank’s point is well taken. The best indicator of future behavior is past behavior.

    The way Keith treated his first born son and mother alone, Galen and Kristin Keefe, makes Keith’s alleged “paternal concern” an extremely unlikely excuse for his sudden flight back to Mexico — a different part of Mexico, with his harem in town — amid the unexpected, growing controversy in New York.

    Nice touch of Karma that the NYT story hit the stands the day Keith landed back “home” in Albany — after dumping his latest “issue” in Monterrey.

    Only new fact here is that the dumped fam in Monterrey went to visit Keith and harem in Puerto Vallarta. That fact only further contradicts all these claims.

    Agnifilo claims being around Keith was so dangerous — thanks to big, bad Frank Parlato and scary Sarah Edmondson’s chasings and hackings — Keith didn’t dare return to live with Marianna and Kemar in Monterrey or remain there in the first place, for their own protection. So dangerous was it that Keith had to use encrypted email to avoid being found NOT with them.

    Dizzying tailspin of lies. Billable but not at all believable.

  • Perhaps I’m wrong but KAR doesn’t appear to be the doting dad type. He appears to want a follower’s undivided attention. Any offspring would be an obstacle to this. I believe Frank is correct.

  • Admittedly, Rainiere sounds like a weak man undergoing intense fear, doubt and shame.You are right. He left and he should have stayed and supported those in his group who were suffering with the same emotions.

    His behavior with women indicates a similar weakness: he confuses fantasy with lasting truth and is narcissistic needing many women to support his ego/manliness and gratify him.

    Is he a serious sex criminal? No, he is not a rapist; he is an everyday liar who uses people for his own ego and the DOS information / potential blackmail thing got way out of control. Only someone deeply paranoid and controlling would sign off on something like that. And, in the end, no one was blackmailed.

    The question is does all that warrant keeping someone locked up at MDC Brooklyn while waiting for trial? Is he a flight risk?

    If appropriate, stringent safeguards can be taken and enforced, I would support his release.

    • Raniere has nothing to keep him in Albany, or anywhere in US jurisdiction. His cult empire has no future in the US. His few remaining followers would follow him to wherever he flees. Some remaining followers are rich enough to support him wherever he goes. And he doubtless has caches of cash and offshore accounts prepared for his present situation.

      Given all that, even if he had a chance of prevailing at trial, which is exceedingly unlikely, he wouldn’t stick around in the US after the trial.

      So of course he will flee immediately if he ever gets out of MDC, without waiting for his trial.

      • Your argument is very persuasive.

        I don’t think he’ll prevail at trial either. Not with the combination of sex. blackmail and financial charges along with the likely-hood of Nancy and/or other former Nexium members serving as witnesses for the government.

        The point remains: is he a flight risk or is he a danger to society, if released to prepare for his case?
        I don’t see him as a “sex criminal” and there is reason for him to show up: to prove to himself he has integrity despite not showing integrity in several previous situations.

        • Raniere cons people out of their money, and away from their families and friends. He cons them to smuggle cash and young women into the country for him. He cons them into blackmailing young women into sex slavery for him.

          If he prevailed at trial, he would go back to doing all that.

          If he were released before trial, he would go back to doing all that.

          It’s all he knows.

          Either that, or flee prosecution.

          Raniere will be in MDC until the trial.

        • He has no integrity. He did rape people (ask Toni N.). He stole, cheated, lied, bullied, intimidated, avoided taxes, imprisoned people and enslaved them. He mentally manipulated followers to starve and sleep deprive themselves. WHAT INTEGRITY? This is Consumers Buyline on steroids!

        • I don’t think he needs to prove to himself that he has integrity…or anything else. I have a hunch that he believes he can do anything he wants, even illegal or detrimental to others, and if someone is hurt by his actions then it is their own emotional weakness. If his actions are illegal, it’s the legal system that is wrong. Some part of him has believed he is perfect in action and thought for a long time now. How else could he cause so many others to believe so? Being locked up may break that down a bit, but it’s doubtful. He is incapable of remorse…though he can fake it well. I think there’s a word for people like that…

          He will go as soon as the opportunity presents itself.

          • But then there’s also the scenario where he does show up…believing that a normal-thinking non-brainwashed jury will see everything he stands accused of as being completely acceptable. Since he believes it so deeply.

            Having mostly only associated with his own brainwashed followers for the last couple decades might have screwed with his own sense!

    • — No, he is not a rapist;

      He’s been accused of rape (both statutory and otherwise) multiple times.

      — Is he a flight risk?

      Is water wet?

      • Before he left for Mexico itvwas late March he ws shoveling for my dog I wonder why he wasn’t walking with any women that night itvwas 7 he was very nice to me worried about me waking at night then he says to me you probably wonder why see me walking with women and being on my phI said not really he said he worked for the navho Indians I said wow I’ll never know what he was to to be kept talking I told him I Had to get in my family said very strange

    • What he did qualifies as rape, just because the collateral had not yet been used does not make it any less frightening for those caught in his web of deception. And how to explain his initials branded permanently on DOS women’s tender skin right above their pubic region, no future lover would be able to miss this. Some of these women in their early 20s. It’s rape by coercion and we don’t know what deviant acts they committed at his request, not feeling free to say no. Every one should have the right , the safety in our laws to SAY NO.

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” In addition, he was credited in the Starz docuseries 'Seduced' for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premieres on May 22, 2022.

IMDb — Frank Parlato,_Jr.

Contact Frank with tips or for help.
Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083