Claviger: My Estimates on Sentences for the Other NXIVM Defendants

MK10ART: Keith Raniere and the other Nxivm defendants.

Wow… I did not see all that coming.

An 81-month prison term, a fine of $500,000, an order to pay $96,605 of restitution to “Jane Doe 12”, a $6,000,000 cash forfeiture – and immediate imprisonment.

Oh, and based on when yesterday’s proceedings ended, probably a bologna sandwich, an apple, and a carton of milk for dinner.

All in all, a rather bad day for an heiress who still has more than $200-million in assets.

Not even Clare Bronfman’s favorite piece of jewelry – that little silver heart necklace from Tiffany’s – could stave off the onslaught of bad news for Clare Bronfman yesterday.

Clare Bronfman arrives at the Brooklyn courthouse on wearing her favorite necklace – which turned out not to be such a good luck charm after all. It also suggests she did not think she was going to prison that day since they do not allow jewelry in prison.

But as Clare is settling into her temporary surroundings at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC), let’s try to parse out what yesterday’s sentencing hearing portends for the other five NXIVM defendants who have not yet been sentenced.

[We have confirmed that Clare is being held at the MDC – probably under quarantine for the next few days. She will likely be there for several weeks while the BOP’s Designation and Sentence Computation Center in Grand Prairie, TX decides where she should serve her sentence].

The Metropolitan Detention Center


Keith Raniere

Keith is scheduled to be sentenced on October 27th by the same judge who presided over Clare’s sentencing hearing yesterday.

After a trial that lasted about 6-weeks, he was found guilty of all seven charges he was facing: Racketeering, Racketeering Conspiracy, Forced Labor Conspiracy, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking, and Attempted Sex Trafficking.

MK10ART’s portrayal of Keith Alan Raniere in the setting where he will likely spend the rest of his life.

Prior to the trial, he also had four other charges dismissed in the EDNY – and referred to the NDNY: two counts of Sexual Exploitation of a Child, one count of Possession of Child Pornography, and one count Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft.

At this point, the prosecution has recommended that he be given a life sentence – and his attorneys have recommended he serve 15 years.

Even before yesterday’s proceedings, Keith’s prospects looked pretty bleak.

Given that he’s 60 years old, even a 15-year sentence would be pretty daunting.

And anything significantly over that could easily turn out to be a “life sentence” in fact if not in name.

So, yesterday was also not a good day for Keith.

Based on the judge’s reaction to Clare’s rather pitiful expression of remorse yesterday – and the likelihood that Keith will offer even less – I have to agree with most pundits’ instant analysis that Keith will likely be sentenced to life imprisonment.

What will be interesting is what other penalties Judge Garaufis will choose to impose on him.

He most certainly will be fined the maximum amount allowable – which could be as much as $1,750,000.

But what will be really interesting is how much restitution Keith is ordered to pay – and to whom?

Based on the restitution claims that were made against Clare, I think it’s safe to assume that there will be lots of people asserting very significant claims against Keith.

While the judge could limit such claims to those individuals who were harmed with respect to the specific crimes that Keith was convicted of committing back in June 2019, he could also allow anyone who was harmed by Keith to seek restitution against him.

Whether anyone will ever collect any restitution from Keith is another matter since there are reportedly other claimants already asserting their rights with respect to the money that he inherited from Pam Cafritz.

MK10ART’s painting of Keith Raniere and his late partner Pam Cafritz. Pam left her estate of $8 million to Keith.

All in all, those details probably won’t mean all that much to Keith.

As long as he can max out his commissary account every month, he’ll have all the money he’ll ever need for the rest of his life.

[Although Judge Garaufis will not be the one who decides where Keith will serve his sentence, he can put things on the record during the sentencing hearing that can influence the BOP’s decision on that matter. Thus, if he describes Keith as “a public menace” or “a danger to society” – which I believe he will do – the odds go up that Keith will be assigned to the underground supermax prison in Colorado].


Nancy Salzman

As of right now, Nancy does not have a sentencing date.

But now that the ice has been broken with Clare’s sentencing, I would expect her to get one in the next few weeks.

Most likely, it will be after Keith’s October 27th sentencing date – probably sometime in November or December.

Nancy – who required members of the NXIVM cult to call her “Prefect” – was originally charged with one count of Racketeering.

Another superb sketch by MK10ART – of Vanguard and Prefect

She was the first of Raniere’s co-defendants to break ranks when she pleaded guilty to one count of Racketeering Conspiracy on March 12, 2019.

Based on the transcript from her plea hearing, it does not appear that she has any plea deal in place.

But she will definitely get some “brownie points” for being the first one to plead out.

Per the applicable sentencing guidelines, the 65-year-old Salzman could receive a sentence of 33-41 months.

Given her age – and her recent medical problems – I think her attorneys will likely ask for no prison time or for no more than 6 months.

Before yesterday, I was thinking that Nancy would likely end up with a sentence of 12-24 months.

But based on Clare’s sentence – plus the wording of yesterday’s Press Release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office – I now think she’ll end up with a 36-month prison sentence, a fine of $250,000, and 3-years of post-release supervision.

However, if the judge hands out a sentence that is three times the sentencing guidelines, as he did for Clare, she might get as long or a longer sentence than Clare’s 6.75 years.

Unless Nancy has been able to offer a great deal of information that federal prosecutors could not get anywhere else, she may be spending her next couple of Yom Kippurs behind bars.

It is not known to what, if any, extent she cooperated with the prosecution and/or how much remorse she will express at her sentencing hearing. To be sure everything that came up about her in the Raniere trial is fair game for this judge in determining sentencing.

Nancy has privately denounced Raniere and it is unlikely she will submit a letter as Clare did saying she would not disavow her Vanguard.

How many victims, if any, will come forward to describe to the judge tales of their abuse at Nancy’s hands also remains to be seen.



Lauren Salzman

Just like her Mom, Lauren currently has no sentencing date.

And just like her Mom, I think Lauren will be sentenced sometime in November or December.

As part of an undisclosed plea deal, she pleaded guilty on March 25, 2019 to one count of Racketeering and one count of Racketeering Conspiracy. Each of those crimes carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.

As most Frank Report readers know, Lauren was one of the prosecution’s star witnesses during Keith Raniere’s trial. That alone should earn her some “brownie points” from the prosecution and the judge.

Lauren Salzman in happier times

Although it’s not her fault, Judge Garaufis’ decision to cut off defense counsel’s cross-examination of Lauren will likely be one of the main issues that is raised by Raniere in the appeal of his conviction and the request for a new trial (Not to worry…that appeal will be summarily rejected).

What’s hard to figure out here is just how much the prosecution is willing to say “Thanks” to Lauren for her testimony at Raniere’s trial – and how much Judge Garaufis will take that into consideration in determining her sentence.

All in all, I now think that Lauren’s attorneys will recommend a sentence of 24-months for Lauren – and that the prosecutors will concur with that recommendation.

And given Lauren’s vociferous renunciation of NXIVN and Raniere – and her stellar performance on the witness stand – I think Judge Garaufis will go along with those recommendations.

So, let’s mark Lauren down for a 24-month sentence – which means shall spend about 17 months behind bars; a fine of $100,000; and 3-years of post-release supervision.

And let’s hope that while she is incarcerated, she writes the definitive book about everything that is NXIVM.

Oh, the stories that she could tell…


Allison Mack

Like all the other NXIVM defendants except Raniere, Allison Mack currently has no sentencing date.

And as was the case with Nancy and Lauren Salzman, I think Allison will likely end up getting sentenced sometime in November or December.

Less than two weeks after Lauren pleaded guilty, it was Allison Mack’s turn to stand before Judge Garaufis and plead guilty to the same two charges as Lauren did: one count of Racketeering and one count of Racketeering Conspiracy.

In addition to those two counts, the former TV actress was also facing charges for Forced Labor Conspiracy, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking, Sex Trafficking Conspiracy, and Attempted Sex Trafficking Conspiracy.

Although no details were disclosed at the hearing at which she pleaded guilty, it is believed that the applicable sentencing guidelines for Allison are somewhere in the range of 30-48 months.

Whether Judge Garaufis will stay within those sentencing guidelines – or go above them or below them – will depend in large part on three factors: (1) the contents of her “Pre-Sentencing Report”; (2) the recommendation of the U.S. Attorney’s Office; and (3) her ability to convince the judge that she is truly contrite for what she did while she was a member of NXIVM and DOS.

Allison’s attorneys will likely ask for something like 12-18 months – which after yesterday’s proceedings, is nothing but a pipe dream.

Since Allison did not testify – and since there is no indication that she was especially cooperative and helpful to the prosecution before or during the trial – she likely will not get the kind of “brownie points” that Lauren will probably get.

She will, however, likely get some “negative points” for some of the testimony that came out about her during the course of Raniere’s trial (It’s hard to erase the memory of her email to Raniere following their threesome romp with Daniella Padilla – or her description of Michele Hatchett as having “a beautiful cunt”).

MK10ART’s painting of Allison Mack.

All in all, I think Allison is going to end up with a prison sentence of 48 months, a fine of $500,000, and 3-years of post-release supervision.


Kathy Russell

And last – and, fortunately for her, least – we have Kathy Russell.

Just like Nancy, Lauren and Allison, she currently has no sentencing date – and just like them, I expect she will be sentenced sometime in November or December.

Kathy was the last of Raniere’s co-defendants to plead guilty – which may be more reflective of how unimportant the prosecution considered her rather than any recalcitrance on her part.

Marie White’s painting of Kathy Russell.

Originally, she was charged with Racketeering Conspiracy – and several underlying predicate acts (Had she not been led astray by her original attorney, she would never have been indicted).

But in April 2019, she entered into a plea deal that allowed her to plead guilty to one count of Visa Fraud – and that indicated her maximum prison sentence would be no more than 12-18 months.

Were it not for yesterday’s outcome, I think Kathy might have gotten off without any prison time.

But given where Judge Garufis went with Clare – and where he’s likely going to go with Raniere – I now think she’ll end up with a sentence that calls for 6-months of imprisonment, 6-months of home confinement, no fine, and 3-years of post-release supervision.


So, there you have it.

As the judge made clear yesterday, the NXIVM defendants are the equivalent of a pile of Pick-Up Sticks: i.e., move one – and you likely affect the others.

Pressman Toys Giant Pick Up Sticks 9 3/4 long

So, while in theory, the sentences meted out to each of them could be totally independent of one another, that will not be the case.

Instead, judge Garaufis will seek to establish some sort of equitable relationship among the sentences he hands out.

Something like this:

  • Keith Raniere: life in prison; a fine of $1.75 million; restitution of $10-$15 million; and forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets (No need for post-release supervision because there will not be any release).


  • Clare Bronfman: 81-months in prison; a fine of $500,000; restitution of $96,605.25 to Jane Doe 12; money forfeiture of $6,000,000; and 3-years of post-release supervision.


  • Nancy Salzman: 36-months in prison; a fine of $250,000; restitution of $500,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets – including the more than $500,000 in cash that was found in her house; and 3-years of post-release supervision.


  • Lauren Salzman: 24-months in prison; a fine of $100,000; restitution of $100,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets; and 3-years of post-release supervision.


  • Allison Mack: 48-months in prison; a fine of $500,000; restitution of $250,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets; and 3-years of post-release supervision.


  • Kathy Russell: 6-months in prison; 6-months of home confinement; a fine of $10,000; restitution of $10,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets; and 3-years of post-release supervision.


Viva Executive Success!

NXIVM teaches Executive Success Programs


About the author

K.R. Claviger


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  • “Since Allison did not testify – and since there is no indication that she was especially cooperative and helpful to the prosecution before or during the trial – she likely will not get the kind of “brownie points” that Lauren will probably get.”

    Jesus…can’t you stay true for once?

    It was clearly stated that she cooperated (USB key and other details)

    It’s Penza who refused Allison to testify to the court…

    Mostly because it would have backlashed her a lot as Allison would have shown that she was fully a victim (not like the proofs don’t show it already…)

    She cooperated fully but was denied (since the beginning) to express herself.

  • As for Nancy, she had the opportunity to demonstrate she was truly repentant, or start to show, by making a selfless act to the first true victim of hers; Lauren. She could have let her daughter complete her plea deal first. In doing so, Lauren could have very likely received a better deal that may not have forced her to testify.

  • I would like to see more on Nancy. As of now, on this site, there is almost nothing. Almost as though she did nothing of seriousness. Well, the money thing but most small businesses do not report a lot of cash payments over the years, so that is a crime, but a whatever one.. But what did she know was going on? How much? And was she intimidated into silence? Raniere let his disintegrations create darkness beyond repair. Did she?

    • I suspect some people and some things are not mentioned because of potential future litigation and criminal prosecution. It’s not over.

    Nancy Salzman needs to spend more time than predicted here, for the hand that she played in my sister, Kristin Marie Snyder’s death – telling people – “just ignore her, she’s trying to get attention”. She was also ignored when she told people she had been raped and was pregnant”. These same criminals, who had NO medical background- ignored her, and gaslighted my whole entire family while we were in Anchorage, AK looking for my sister, when we were told, she was going to commit suicide.

    Nancy Salzman and Keith Raniere, the monster, deserve to spend the same amount of time in prison, LIFE- NO parole.

    I have had the experience of defending my sister and my family from these monsters- and now know what the term, “NXIVM victim” means. My family and I are NXIVM victims- and the Judge needs to sentence Nancy and Vanguard to LIFE!!!!!!!!!

  • One more thing:

    At the risk of being repetitive: Keith Raniere – you had:

    A loving if imperfect family.
    A good upbringing and good education.
    Access to nearly unlimited wealth.
    Scores of adoring and obedient followers.
    Servants, so your every need was met and every chore was done for you.
    Chauffeurs, so you never had to drive.
    Sex on demand with a large group of females.
    A loving heiress supporter who bought you most of an island in Fiji.
    Midnight volleyball on demand.
    The Dalai Lama endorsing your…whatever.

    YET – that was not enough for you. You had to push the envelope and take things too far. Why? What will ever be enough for you?

    Enjoy the commissary. If you write a book, I will buy a copy at a used book store and burn it.

    • I would actually like to binge with her and ask pointed questions about how much of her was part of how she played Chloe. And then point out the goodness. Then ask how she goes from there to where she is. I would very much like to read an autobiography on her specifically.

  • You were blindsided by Bronfman’s sentencing and now we’re supposed to pay attention to your estimates for the others…why? LOL

      • I know you and Scott enjoy annoying each other so I will approve ya little of your back and forth since no one is insulted and some readers are amused.

      • Mr. NiceGuy 666,

        … And who exactly can consistently f*ck up spelling a two-letter word such as “to?” LOL

        Family members and bartenders must love it when you’re around, because you make them look like geniuses. LOL

  • I’m not a sentencing expert and don’t expect sentences to make rational sense but Judge G came down harder than anyone predicted.

    What’s next for Raniere? It’s hard for me to see a life sentence despite him fucking up so many people. He was not charged with a capital crime and he is not physically dangerous to other inmates. Given his age: 15 to 20 years means he’s there for the rest of his “useful’ remaining years. Why go beyond that?

    • As the judge will undoubtedly explain in his Sentencing Memorandum, Raniere’s sentence will also be fashioned to serve as a warning to anyone else who is thinking about starting up his or her own sex cult. I’m not sure that really works – but’s it’s a great rationale for handing out extra harsh sentences.

      • You don’t have to be sure whether that really works, you’ll never know if someone decides not to do something, you can’t prove a negative. LOL

        • Bronfman can try going for an appeal, based on the bad help she got before her plea bargain. Ineffective counsel. It could be one backdoor she might attempt. Shr can politely point out that the Geragos/Avenatti dog-and-pony show confused, shocked and befuddled her litigious but absent mind. No one explained anything to poor Clare.

          However, her current attorneys can’t refute her pre-sentencing letter to the Judge, wherein Clare Bronfman baldly, blindly stated her continuing approval for Raniere. Did Raniere call Clare’s maid or doorman on his burner phones? Spider to the fly?

          • Good point, Shivani – ineffective counsel, that ‘dog-and-pony show’ as you call it, is a matter of global public record, and is the only aspect of her legal counsel, where I can see she was definitely not well served. She should have reformed at that point. Things would have been so different for her if she had.

            She didn’t. THIS is what she did.

            Hindsight is a marvelous thing but like ignorance, absolutely no use at all as a legal defense.

        • Mr. LOL

          —You don’t have to be sure whether that really works, you’ll never know if someone decides not to do something, *you can’t prove a negative.

          Your very existence proves you wrong.

          *You can prove a negative.

          • “Existing is not a negative, NiceGuy 666.” —LOLBOY

            Your very existence is a negative; you personify [negative].

            I meant it figuratively not literally. Low IQ individuals have difficulty identifying various forms of figurative speech such as simile, metaphor, and sarcasm. I am sorry I confused you. Now I know why Frank and Heidi both personally asked me to leave you alone.

      • Clav-

        Nancy Salzman had cancer. Her immune system is comprised. Have you no heart man? Geez. Some people have no shame.

        • Given how many lives Nancy Salzman helped destroy, and how many times people in NXIVM were told there are no ultimate victims ?

          Shouldn’t she be taking responsibility for creating this situation for herself?

        • I was not stating the sentences that I WOULD mete out. Instead, I was trying to predict what sentences I thought Judge Nicholas Garaufis WILL mete out.

        • “Nancy Salzman had cancer. Her immune system is comprised. Have you no heart man? Geez. Some people have no shame.”

          I bet there are a multitude of NXIVM teachings that apply to that statement, which are shameful and heartless. Why? Because she designed it that way.

          Consequences are a beautiful thing when they happen to those who thought were above them.

      • Clav

        A life sentence automatically turns him into a martyr or even worse, a political prisoner. He does not deserve the honored status of being a political prisoner as he is not a true political figure. But, this will occur and he’ll get even more attention from various rights groups. I’d rather have the judge avoid this and sentence him to the minimum 15 years or worst case, 20 years, thus calling less attention to him avoiding the claim of being singled out and unfairly targeted for his libertarian beliefs. (He is neither Democrat or Republican, rather a Libertarian in the style of Ayn Rand).

    • In the grand scheme of things, it is undisputed that KAR did so much more than convince / coerce women to have sex with him, and “voluntarily” submit to cattle branding. The Judge’s apt description of KAR’s efforts to threaten, harass, and intimidate detractors into submission is chilling. KAR was and is still a very dangerous man. He has already started to run his game from behind bars. And he still has too many loyal followers to be considered neutralized, even if imprisoned for life.

      Somewhere I read that KAR wanted to “absorb (Susan Dones’) business without paying for it.” That’s exactly when he, through his Austin minions, tried to do to Purchase Power, Inc., in the early 90’s. I know some of you think that PPI was some kind of scam, but it was not. At that time, was invited to a lunch with his Austin minions, to be nicely told they were going to “take” the company. Would I cooperate? I told them to f*** off, but the damage to the company was mostly already done.

      It is all fascinating when you connect the dots.

      BRAVO to those issuing victim impact statements. I view them as brave and responsible individuals.

      I still fear KAR’s possible involvement in poisonings and “suicides”. I still fret over Rhiannon’s police report of multiple rapes while she was 12, though these topics are not at issue in the sentencing.

      I truly applaud Judge G. for getting all the horrible, nasty evidence and facts into the court record, where they will remain accessible public information. Just like emails, his narrative regarding his decision will never disappear.

      Would love to see the $8M Pam left KAR vaporized through fines and restitution.

      Would love to see Lauren write a book.

  • I hope you’re underestimating all except Raniere’s life sentence in a subterranean cell and believe you may be.

    Clare got far less time than she earned but I, too, am pleasantly surprised she got all that.

    Congratulations to you, Clav, and all who contributed to this joyful outcome.

    Bit of a buzz kill on your predictions here and hope you’re being conservative — but I, too, learned not to expect much in the way of justice when it comes to NXIVM — up until Clare’s sentence came down yesterday.

    Heart’s been singing ever since! Thank you!

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” In addition, he was credited in the Starz docuseries 'Seduced' for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premieres on May 22, 2022.

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