Wow… I did not see all that coming.
An 81-month prison term, a fine of $500,000, an order to pay $96,605 of restitution to “Jane Doe 12”, a $6,000,000 cash forfeiture – and immediate imprisonment.
Oh, and based on when yesterday’s proceedings ended, probably a bologna sandwich, an apple, and a carton of milk for dinner.
All in all, a rather bad day for an heiress who still has more than $200-million in assets.
Not even Clare Bronfman’s favorite piece of jewelry – that little silver heart necklace from Tiffany’s – could stave off the onslaught of bad news for Clare Bronfman yesterday.
But as Clare is settling into her temporary surroundings at the Metropolitan Detention Center (MDC), let’s try to parse out what yesterday’s sentencing hearing portends for the other five NXIVM defendants who have not yet been sentenced.
[We have confirmed that Clare is being held at the MDC – probably under quarantine for the next few days. She will likely be there for several weeks while the BOP’s Designation and Sentence Computation Center in Grand Prairie, TX decides where she should serve her sentence].
Keith is scheduled to be sentenced on October 27th by the same judge who presided over Clare’s sentencing hearing yesterday.
After a trial that lasted about 6-weeks, he was found guilty of all seven charges he was facing: Racketeering, Racketeering Conspiracy, Forced Labor Conspiracy, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking, and Attempted Sex Trafficking.
Prior to the trial, he also had four other charges dismissed in the EDNY – and referred to the NDNY: two counts of Sexual Exploitation of a Child, one count of Possession of Child Pornography, and one count Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft.
At this point, the prosecution has recommended that he be given a life sentence – and his attorneys have recommended he serve 15 years.
Even before yesterday’s proceedings, Keith’s prospects looked pretty bleak.
Given that he’s 60 years old, even a 15-year sentence would be pretty daunting.
And anything significantly over that could easily turn out to be a “life sentence” in fact if not in name.
So, yesterday was also not a good day for Keith.
Based on the judge’s reaction to Clare’s rather pitiful expression of remorse yesterday – and the likelihood that Keith will offer even less – I have to agree with most pundits’ instant analysis that Keith will likely be sentenced to life imprisonment.
What will be interesting is what other penalties Judge Garaufis will choose to impose on him.
He most certainly will be fined the maximum amount allowable – which could be as much as $1,750,000.
But what will be really interesting is how much restitution Keith is ordered to pay – and to whom?
Based on the restitution claims that were made against Clare, I think it’s safe to assume that there will be lots of people asserting very significant claims against Keith.
While the judge could limit such claims to those individuals who were harmed with respect to the specific crimes that Keith was convicted of committing back in June 2019, he could also allow anyone who was harmed by Keith to seek restitution against him.
Whether anyone will ever collect any restitution from Keith is another matter since there are reportedly other claimants already asserting their rights with respect to the money that he inherited from Pam Cafritz.
All in all, those details probably won’t mean all that much to Keith.
As long as he can max out his commissary account every month, he’ll have all the money he’ll ever need for the rest of his life.
[Although Judge Garaufis will not be the one who decides where Keith will serve his sentence, he can put things on the record during the sentencing hearing that can influence the BOP’s decision on that matter. Thus, if he describes Keith as “a public menace” or “a danger to society” – which I believe he will do – the odds go up that Keith will be assigned to the underground supermax prison in Colorado].
As of right now, Nancy does not have a sentencing date.
But now that the ice has been broken with Clare’s sentencing, I would expect her to get one in the next few weeks.
Most likely, it will be after Keith’s October 27th sentencing date – probably sometime in November or December.
Nancy – who required members of the NXIVM cult to call her “Prefect” – was originally charged with one count of Racketeering.
She was the first of Raniere’s co-defendants to break ranks when she pleaded guilty to one count of Racketeering Conspiracy on March 12, 2019.
Based on the transcript from her plea hearing, it does not appear that she has any plea deal in place.
But she will definitely get some “brownie points” for being the first one to plead out.
Per the applicable sentencing guidelines, the 65-year-old Salzman could receive a sentence of 33-41 months.
Given her age – and her recent medical problems – I think her attorneys will likely ask for no prison time or for no more than 6 months.
Before yesterday, I was thinking that Nancy would likely end up with a sentence of 12-24 months.
But based on Clare’s sentence – plus the wording of yesterday’s Press Release from the U.S. Attorney’s Office – I now think she’ll end up with a 36-month prison sentence, a fine of $250,000, and 3-years of post-release supervision.
However, if the judge hands out a sentence that is three times the sentencing guidelines, as he did for Clare, she might get as long or a longer sentence than Clare’s 6.75 years.
Unless Nancy has been able to offer a great deal of information that federal prosecutors could not get anywhere else, she may be spending her next couple of Yom Kippurs behind bars.
It is not known to what, if any, extent she cooperated with the prosecution and/or how much remorse she will express at her sentencing hearing. To be sure everything that came up about her in the Raniere trial is fair game for this judge in determining sentencing.
Nancy has privately denounced Raniere and it is unlikely she will submit a letter as Clare did saying she would not disavow her Vanguard.
How many victims, if any, will come forward to describe to the judge tales of their abuse at Nancy’s hands also remains to be seen.
Just like her Mom, Lauren currently has no sentencing date.
And just like her Mom, I think Lauren will be sentenced sometime in November or December.
As part of an undisclosed plea deal, she pleaded guilty on March 25, 2019 to one count of Racketeering and one count of Racketeering Conspiracy. Each of those crimes carries a maximum sentence of 20 years.
As most Frank Report readers know, Lauren was one of the prosecution’s star witnesses during Keith Raniere’s trial. That alone should earn her some “brownie points” from the prosecution and the judge.
Although it’s not her fault, Judge Garaufis’ decision to cut off defense counsel’s cross-examination of Lauren will likely be one of the main issues that is raised by Raniere in the appeal of his conviction and the request for a new trial (Not to worry…that appeal will be summarily rejected).
What’s hard to figure out here is just how much the prosecution is willing to say “Thanks” to Lauren for her testimony at Raniere’s trial – and how much Judge Garaufis will take that into consideration in determining her sentence.
All in all, I now think that Lauren’s attorneys will recommend a sentence of 24-months for Lauren – and that the prosecutors will concur with that recommendation.
And given Lauren’s vociferous renunciation of NXIVN and Raniere – and her stellar performance on the witness stand – I think Judge Garaufis will go along with those recommendations.
So, let’s mark Lauren down for a 24-month sentence – which means shall spend about 17 months behind bars; a fine of $100,000; and 3-years of post-release supervision.
And let’s hope that while she is incarcerated, she writes the definitive book about everything that is NXIVM.
Oh, the stories that she could tell…
Like all the other NXIVM defendants except Raniere, Allison Mack currently has no sentencing date.
And as was the case with Nancy and Lauren Salzman, I think Allison will likely end up getting sentenced sometime in November or December.
Less than two weeks after Lauren pleaded guilty, it was Allison Mack’s turn to stand before Judge Garaufis and plead guilty to the same two charges as Lauren did: one count of Racketeering and one count of Racketeering Conspiracy.
In addition to those two counts, the former TV actress was also facing charges for Forced Labor Conspiracy, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking, Sex Trafficking Conspiracy, and Attempted Sex Trafficking Conspiracy.
Although no details were disclosed at the hearing at which she pleaded guilty, it is believed that the applicable sentencing guidelines for Allison are somewhere in the range of 30-48 months.
Whether Judge Garaufis will stay within those sentencing guidelines – or go above them or below them – will depend in large part on three factors: (1) the contents of her “Pre-Sentencing Report”; (2) the recommendation of the U.S. Attorney’s Office; and (3) her ability to convince the judge that she is truly contrite for what she did while she was a member of NXIVM and DOS.
Allison’s attorneys will likely ask for something like 12-18 months – which after yesterday’s proceedings, is nothing but a pipe dream.
Since Allison did not testify – and since there is no indication that she was especially cooperative and helpful to the prosecution before or during the trial – she likely will not get the kind of “brownie points” that Lauren will probably get.
She will, however, likely get some “negative points” for some of the testimony that came out about her during the course of Raniere’s trial (It’s hard to erase the memory of her email to Raniere following their threesome romp with Daniella Padilla – or her description of Michele Hatchett as having “a beautiful cunt”).
All in all, I think Allison is going to end up with a prison sentence of 48 months, a fine of $500,000, and 3-years of post-release supervision.
And last – and, fortunately for her, least – we have Kathy Russell.
Just like Nancy, Lauren and Allison, she currently has no sentencing date – and just like them, I expect she will be sentenced sometime in November or December.
Kathy was the last of Raniere’s co-defendants to plead guilty – which may be more reflective of how unimportant the prosecution considered her rather than any recalcitrance on her part.
Originally, she was charged with Racketeering Conspiracy – and several underlying predicate acts (Had she not been led astray by her original attorney, she would never have been indicted).
But in April 2019, she entered into a plea deal that allowed her to plead guilty to one count of Visa Fraud – and that indicated her maximum prison sentence would be no more than 12-18 months.
Were it not for yesterday’s outcome, I think Kathy might have gotten off without any prison time.
But given where Judge Garufis went with Clare – and where he’s likely going to go with Raniere – I now think she’ll end up with a sentence that calls for 6-months of imprisonment, 6-months of home confinement, no fine, and 3-years of post-release supervision.
So, there you have it.
As the judge made clear yesterday, the NXIVM defendants are the equivalent of a pile of Pick-Up Sticks: i.e., move one – and you likely affect the others.
So, while in theory, the sentences meted out to each of them could be totally independent of one another, that will not be the case.
Instead, judge Garaufis will seek to establish some sort of equitable relationship among the sentences he hands out.
Something like this:
- Keith Raniere: life in prison; a fine of $1.75 million; restitution of $10-$15 million; and forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets (No need for post-release supervision because there will not be any release).
- Clare Bronfman: 81-months in prison; a fine of $500,000; restitution of $96,605.25 to Jane Doe 12; money forfeiture of $6,000,000; and 3-years of post-release supervision.
- Nancy Salzman: 36-months in prison; a fine of $250,000; restitution of $500,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets – including the more than $500,000 in cash that was found in her house; and 3-years of post-release supervision.
- Lauren Salzman: 24-months in prison; a fine of $100,000; restitution of $100,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets; and 3-years of post-release supervision.
- Allison Mack: 48-months in prison; a fine of $500,000; restitution of $250,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets; and 3-years of post-release supervision.
- Kathy Russell: 6-months in prison; 6-months of home confinement; a fine of $10,000; restitution of $10,000; forfeiture of all NXIVM-related assets; and 3-years of post-release supervision.
Viva Executive Success!