Raniere to Be Sentenced January 17, 2020 – What Are Possible Sentences?

Here is the order:

“The sentencing hearing for Defendant Keith Raniere will be held on January 17, 2020 at 11:00 AM in Courtroom 4D South. Ordered by Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis on 10/4/2019. (Entered: 10/04/2019).”

Keith Alan Raniere AKA Vanguard was convicted on June 19, 2019.  This date is known by some as Vangone Day.

The jury deliberated less than four hours [counting an hour for lunch and the time it took to fill out their lunch menu cards].

So let us look at what 12 people, who sat in the same courtroom with Raniere for six weeks, and heard the evidence against him, unanimously agreed upon, and for which he will be sentenced.

Raniere was found guilty of

COUNT ONE Racketeering Conspiracy

COUNT TWO Racketeering

COUNT THREE Forced Labor Conspiracy

COUNT FOUR Wire Fraud Conspiracy

COUNT FIVE Sex Trafficking Conspiracy

COUNT SIX Sex Trafficking of Nicole

COUNT SEVEN Attempted Sex Trafficking of Jay

Perhaps most significant is that the jury not only agreed that Raniere was guilty of sex trafficking Nicole, but that he used “force, fraud or coercion” to get Nicole to “engage in one or more commercial sex acts.”

This comes with a steep, mandatory 15 years in prison- something the judge cannot reduce.

Keith will get at least 15 years no matter how lenient Judge Nicholas G. Garuafis might otherwise be inclined to be toward Raniere.

In addition, the jury also concluded that every one of the “predicate acts’ that made up the racketeering charge against him were acts that Raniere actually engaged in.

They found him guilty on every charge, and every predicate act was proven to the satisfaction of the jury.

Here are the predicate acts the jury unanimously agreed were proven.

Racketeering Act 1

1A (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Ashana Chenoa)

Raniere conspired with several others to get Daniela [who got immunity and who testified against him] into the US illegally by using the name of the late Ashana Chenoa, a perfect stranger to them.]

1B (Conspiracy to Unlawfully Possess Identification Document)

They had a bogus ID for Chenoa that got Daniela across the border.

Racketeering Act 2 (Sexual Exploitation of a Child on November 2, 2005 – Camila)

Raniere had taken nude pictures of 15-year-old Camila on Nov. 2, and 24, 2005 and stupidly kept those in his so-called Library [some call it his sex lair] a townhouse at 8 Hale Drive in suburban Albany, NY.

This was perhaps the lynchpin of the entire case against him – and the primary cause of his co-defendants taking plea deals – in my opinion. It was especially stupid of Raniere to have left those images of Camila there [he might have forgotten them] on a hard drive. [He had many hard drives with thousands of nude pictures collected over the years].  He abandoned his home and his sex lair in Nov. 2017 to flee to Mexico. [Frank Report broke the news of his fleeing in December and even gave his new address in a post, with pictures.]

The evidence of Camila came late in the investigation.

Had he simply destroyed all his hard drives and computers, this dunce might have fared entirely differently. It was the awful proof of his sexual exploitation of a child, that formed the basis of a superseding indictment.

His co-defendants – Allison Mack, Kathy Russell, Clare Bronfman, Lauren Salzman and the first to take a plea deal, Nancy Salzman – all made deals with the feds within weeks of the underage Camila pictures becoming part of the evidence of the case. I don’t think that was a coincidence.

Racketeering Act 3 (Sexual Exploitation of a Child on November 24, 2005 – Camila)

This again is based on sexually graphic photos of Camila.

Racketeering Act 4 (Possession of Child Pornography)

This again is based on the photos of Camila, which Raniere stupidly kept in his library for some 12 years before they were seized by the feds.

Racketeering Act 5

5A (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft)

5B (Identity Theft – James Loperfido)

Raniere and his coconspirators – including Kathy Russell – hacked into accountant James Loperfido’s email account. The reason for this is, in part, that they were trying to hack into his associate, Joseph O’Hara’s email account.

5C (Identity Theft – Edgar Bronfman)

Raniere and his co-conspirators  – including Clare Bronfman – hacked into Clare’s father’s email account so they could spy on him.

Racketeering Act 6 (Conspiracy to Alter Records for Use in an Official Proceeding)

Raniere and Nancy Salzman – with the help of Mark Vicente – who, he testified, did not know why he was asked to do it – altered video that was later used in evidence in a federal civil case Nxivm brought against Rick Ross.

Racketeering Act 7 (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Marianna)

They hacked into Mariana’s accounts.

Racketeering Act 8

8A (Trafficking for Labor and Services – Daniela)

They forced Daniela to do labor and services – without pay – which included a series of book reports on books in Raniere’s library.

8B (Document Servitude – Daniela)

Raniere, Lauren Salzman and others – after confining Daniela to a room in Clifton Park NY for 700 days – refused to return documents – including her birth certificate –  when they let her return to Mexico. She was without ID for some time, because Raniere and Lauren would not agree to give them back to her.

Racketeering Act 9 (Extortion)

The extortion arose out of the fear of DOS slaves who were required to do certain acts – while Raniere and the other DOS slave masters, such as Lauren and Allison Mack – held damning collateral [blackmail worthy material].

Racketeering Act 10

10A (Sex Trafficking – Nicole)

10B (Forced Labor – Nicole)

Nicole had to help with the late Pam Cafritz’s memorial service – which she felt she was forced to do – not because she wanted to, but because Raniere and Mack held her collateral and might release it if she did not do it.

Racketeering Act 11 (Conspiracy to Commit Identity Theft – Pamela Cafritz)

Raniere, along with others, notably Clare Bronfman, used the late Pam Cafritz’s American express credit card to charge up hundreds of thousands of dollars. They did pay the card – but it is a crime to use a dead person’s credit card – even if you pay it.

So what will Raniere’s sentence be?

We know it will be at least 15 years for the sex trafficking of Nicole alone.

Racketeering, racketeering conspiracy, forced labor, sex trafficking conspiracy all come with a maximum 20 years. [There is no minimum] Sex trafficking by use of force, fraud etc. comes with a max of 25 [minimum 15].

If the judge wants to throw the book at him, he could sentence Raniere to the maximum on each charge – to run consecutively.

That would mean a sentence of 145 years for the 59 year old Raniere.

Despite Raniere’s lack of prior criminal history and his age, sentencing guidelines for the combined nature of his conviction will be steep.

I would estimate the sentencing guidelines range would be in the 30 years-to life range.

While no one can predict what sentence the judge will hand out, it seems to me, based on the high profile nature of the case, the seriousness of some of the charges, the odious nature of the revelations that came out at trial, the destruction of other human lives associated with Raniere – that the judge will not come down with anything less than 30 years.

With time off for good behavior and time served, Raniere would be free at age 83-84 if he got 30 years, and was well behaved, and, of course, he lived that long in a maximum-security prison.

If for some reason the judge exercised maximum leniency and gave Raniere the bare minimum – 15 years – with good behavior and time served [he has 1 and 1/2 years in already], he could be out in little more than 11 years. He would be 70.

The question is really whether Keith will get a life sentence or not.

I tend to suspect that when judges think through these kinds of sentences, part of their consideration might be whether or not the defendant will always be – regardless of age – a menace to society.

If they think that a defendant is going to be always dangerous, if the charges warrant it, they hand down a life sentence – or a sentence that assures a defendant’s imprisonment last beyond his likely lifespan – [i.e. 90 years].

If the judge thinks Raniere might, as an old man, be less of a danger, he can calculate it that way.

At what age would a Raniere be safe to be with innocent human beings again?

Does he hand Raniere a sentence where he can get out when he is 70, 75, 80, 85?

I think the pivotal question for the judge if he thinks along these lines [and he has plenty of discretion] will be whether to let an elderly Raniere ever see the light of day.

I doubt – and this is just my opinion – the judge will think Raniere will be safe at any age in his early 70s.

Then the next question is – would Raniere be safe to be let loose when he is in his 80s?  Nineties in most cases are moot – for few live that long – especially in the hell holes of American prisons.  Even 80s is a reach.

I predict Raniere either gets life [or life equivalent] – the harsh sentence – or the judge shows some leniency and gives him a chance to breathe free air one day.  If he gave him 26 years, Raniere potentially gets out at age 80.

I would guess Raniere gets 30 years, or something close to that.  After all, Raniere was not convicted of murder.

At least not yet.

I am investigating that possibility that he murdered some and attempted it with others – but that is another story which I will be reporting on the results very soon.







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Frank Parlato

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[…] Raniere to Be Sentenced January 17, 2020 – What Are Possible Sentences? […]

4 years ago

Did we ever get a description of how Raniere reacted when he saw Frank in the courtroom during the trial? I remember reading Frank saying there was a reaction and he’d write about that later.

Or is Frank waiting to describe that moment in conjunction with Raniere’s reaction to him at the sentencing?

4 years ago
Reply to  Frank Parlato

I thought someone said that the pause was caused by the horrible smell that you brought with you when you entered. People paused, wondering where the awful smell was coming from. I think people are afraid to tell you the truth about how bad you smell. Afraid that you will start writing about them the way you write about Toni. Admit it Frank. That’s the real reason that you are attacking her correct? Did Toni advise you that you might want to do a better job washing what’s left of your shriveled private parts. I imagine all of the wrinkles makes it difficult to get out all of the shit and piss down there but that doesn’t mean you can’t try. you should also change that side picture of you. It only reinforces that you smell as bad as people say. Try to find a picture where it looks like you have bathed recently and are wearing fresh clothes. There’s no virtue in looking so shameful and deflated.

4 years ago
Reply to  Frank Parlato

Thank you for the reply. Fascinating.

4 years ago

I don’t want to prejudge Judge Garaufis on how high he’s going to impose
penalties on Keith Allan Raniere. The possible range is very wide. Even if
the judge does not think he has to impose the absolute maximum penalty.
Then he should think about when he has ever exhausted the penalty range.
Everything about the possible remaining life expectancy of a convicted
person is theoretically and practically unenforceable and would be symbolic.
But it would be a clear signal. And in this case a clear signal is needed to
society and to this kind of perpetrators. But the judge decides alone. And
that is how it should be.

4 years ago

By 80, his erectile dysfunction will be complete. Yet, his dangerous tongue will still be there.

4 years ago

Derp. Derp. Derp. Derp.
Derp. Derp. Derp. Derp.
Derp. Derp. Derp. Derp.
Derp. Derp. Derp. Derp.
Derp. Derp. Derp. Derp.

4 years ago

Allison Pimp Mack is going to get her Butt Sued Off.
Allison Pimp Mack operated “The Source” a bogus acting school as a front for a sex trafficking operation.
James Franco operated “Studio 4” another bogus acting school that was a front for recruiting females for sex.

News Ripped from Today’s Headlines:
Actor James Franco Sued by Former Acting Students Over Sexual Harassment Claims
“James Franco is being sued for sexual harassment, discrimination and a host of other claims by two former students.”
“The women claim Franco, through his acting school, convinced students to engage in explicit nudity, sex and the “pushing of boundaries” by dangling employment opportunities in front of them. They’re also suing RabbitBandini Productions, the school’s co-owner, Vince Jolivette, and its general manager, Jay Davis.

Tither-Kaplan and Gaal say the school was a ruse to “create a steady stream of young women to objectify and exploit” and a “fraudulent institution”
In Now Closed Acting School”

“James Franco is being accused in a new lawsuit of pressuring his acting school students to get naked for auditions while he dangled promises of movie roles that rarely panned out.

The suit, filed by Sarah Tither-Kaplan and Toni Gaal, says that both women were students at the L.A. branch of the Studio 4 school — which Franco co-founded — back in 2014. The women claim Franco, and other instructors, engaged in “inappropriate and sexually charged behavior toward female students.” In docs, they claim Franco created “an environment of harassment and sexual exploitation.”
“James Franco’s former students sue, alleging sexual exploitation and fraud at his defunct school”

“James Franco and two of his associates are facing a class-action lawsuit alleging that the actor’s Studio 4 acting and filmmaking school was actually a setup to provide them with a stream of young, impressionable women for sexual and financial exploitation.”
“James Franco is seen for the first time after being sued by ex-students for exhibiting ‘inappropriate and sexually charged behavior’ while supervising acting school in 2014”

“Franco was seen for the first time since he was accused of sexual misconduct by two former students of his Studio 4 acting school”

“He is alleged to have promised people roles for participating in nude and/or sexually suggestive scenes”
This is not the first accusation against pervert James Franco.
About two years ago this story appeared.
“Five women accuse actor James Franco of inappropriate or sexually exploitative behavior”

Franco has also sexted a teenage girl.
“Franco has also attracted attention for controversial behavior on social media. In 2014, he used Instagram to ask a 17-year-old British girl he’d met outside a New York theater if she had a boyfriend and whether she was 18. Even after learning her age, he asked for the name of her hotel and if he should rent a room.”

James Franco is being sued and Allison Pimp Mack will also be sued for her using her bogus acting school as a Front to recruit female sex slaves for herself and Keith Raniere.
James Franco is a Schmuck.
Allison Pimp Mack is a Schmuck.

4 years ago

The most interesting thing is the whole Vanguard v. Prefect in terms of the ownership of the Nxivm tech. As in, Nancy, who has “renounced, and by renounced, we mean admits she, supposedly, had major ownership (Delaware First Principles).

I want to know more about how that is going down.
Bc, yes; it would explain all the lawyer back and forth as well as the little group get-togethers.

4 years ago

He is a psychopath, who can cannot and will not change. He would be a danger to society at any any age, and should therefore, never be released. Not only that, he is a self-confessed murderer.

Most likely, like Manson, he did not kill with his own hands,(though that is open to question), but he is nonthesless a murderer, and should be tried for murder just as Manson was.

Thank goodness for Frank, who never tires in his fight for justice for the many victims of Raniere and his equally psychopathic accomplices.

Keep digging Frank – nobody does it better or more methodically than you.

4 years ago

#AllisonMack (left) and #KristinKreuk (right) helped build up the #NXIVM cult by capitalizing on their Smalllville celebrity status. With their fans who admired or even idolized them from the characters they played on TV – they were able to lure in many pre-teens, teens and college aged females. They did this through various groups like #GirlsbyDesign or #GBD and #etholutions and surveys they took on college students.


Heidi Hutchinson
Heidi Hutchinson
4 years ago

I agree, Raniere’s got 30 years coming to him for now. Once he’s in and the truth about the lost women of NXIVM is out, he’ll get tacked with the life sentence for murder he deserves.

Frank won

Girl Scout Cookies
Girl Scout Cookies
4 years ago

Also, looking forward to the Roger Stone trial. Can’t wait!!!!

4 years ago

I gather murdering the soul, and spirit, of a person counts for little these days.

There is a movie, first done in Spanish, then English but this time with Julua Roberts. I think it’s called Secret In Their Eyes.
The script was slightly altered yet the premise was the same.
A loved one wad horribly murdered and justice was ill served.
The husband in the first, the mother in the English version meted out their own justice.
They tracked down the murdered and imprisoned him, in a makeshft cell, at their secluded home, far from prying eyes.
Each day they fed this filthy cur slop, never speaking to him, giving him a bucket to piss and shit in.

I say do likewise to Keith as an object lesson to those who would steal the lives of others.
As for those who were foolush enough to aid and abet him, knowingly, suspending basic moral decency….they should walk amongst us as mere shadows, shunned and despised.

To those of you who mistakenly believe there is some good in either NXIVM or it’s disciples….
you are deluded.

I am not one for censureship yet I would gladly douse NXIVM tech with gasoline, light the match and watch it burn along with Scientology so called tech.

Scott Johnson
4 years ago
Reply to  g

You’re not for censureship [sic] yet you are. That culty thinking. Ever hear of the First Amendment? I say expose it, otherwise the cults get to hide, which is what they want.

4 years ago

Hey Nicki Clyne,
With Der Vanguard locked up for twenty or thirty years, where are you NXIVM gals going to get the Super Sperm to sire Thor Clyne, Thor Mack, Thor Padilla, Thor Bronfman and Thor Salzman?
If a Super Girl Baby is born will she be named “Thora” instead of Thor?
Inquiring minds want to know.

Hail Vanguard!

4 years ago

Jim Del Negro might be the best choice available. (LOL.) You can’t afford to be too picky, Nickvi.

4 years ago
Reply to  Paul

“Jim Del Negro might be the best choice available. (LOL.)”

Now that is really scraping the bottom of the barrel.
Jim Del Negro, the man who was raped by a one hundred pound Asian woman.

4 years ago

Ironically or seriously: Shadowstate is the appropiate donor.
Shadowstate just has to make itself available.

orangecountydreams - OCD
orangecountydreams - OCD
4 years ago

IMO, as long as someone like Clare is waiting on the outside, eager, willing and able to fund him, he will be a danger to society no matter how old when released. His desire for revenge will be over the top by then.

My (worthless) speculation is 20 – 25 years. After sentencing I guess we can all look forward to the appeal, which is certainly coming – possibly with his other threatened lawsuits.

Separately I would not be surprised if he has had his hand in a murder already. Looking forward to Frank’s investigation results.

4 years ago

He did confess on video: “I’ve had people killed.” So the guilt is already established. Now must come the investigation.

Scott Johnson
4 years ago
Reply to  Paul

Except you took the quote out of context. Good luck, it’s already been investigated for several years, and the trail is cold.

4 years ago


I concur with your speculation of 20-25 years.

Nice to see you back!

One Night in Bangkok Makes a Hard Man Humble
One Night in Bangkok Makes a Hard Man Humble
4 years ago

Although I agree that Keith deserves at least 30 years in prison (or more), the judge won’t give him that.

The judge doesn’t wanna be seen as overly harsh and therefore biased against Keith, based on all the media attention.

The judge also doesn’t wanna appear too lenient and favorable towards Keith, given all the media attention about Keith’s perverted life.

Plus, based on lovely Lauren Salzman’s testimony, the judge seems to actually hate Keith.

Given Keith’s age, I believe he’ll give him either 20 or 25 years. That’ll effectively be a life sentence without the judge having to look too biased.

I just don’t see any possibility of a 30-50 year sentence — cuz It would give Keith’s attorneys more ammo for his appeals against the judge stopping Lauren’s testimony.

The judge doesn’t wanna feed into that ‘narrative’ that he’s biased against Keith, and thus that’s why he stopped Lauren’s testimony. He’ll want to mitigate that argument.

Chaotic Soul
Chaotic Soul
4 years ago

I am putting my bet in now for life plus a decade.

4 years ago

Since the Vanguard will be out of circulation for quite a while where will the NXIVM women find their Holy Sperm to create the
Super Babies for the new Master Race?

Nicki Clyne, Do you have any ideas to solve this dilemma?

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” Parlato was also credited in the Starz docuseries "Seduced" for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Additionally, Parlato’s coverage of the group OneTaste, starting in 2018, helped spark an FBI investigation, which led to indictments of two of its leaders in 2023.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premiered on May 22, 2022. Most recently, he consulted and appeared on Tubi's "Branded and Brainwashed: Inside NXIVM," which aired January, 2023.

IMDb — Frank Parlato

Contact Frank with tips or for help.
Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083
Email: frankreport76@gmail.com


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