Guest View: Raniere Appeal Will Take Years to Decide, Meantime His Followers Should Move on

This is in response to  Bangkok: Keith Raniere May Be Free by 2023 – Here’s Why

By Erasend

Let us assume that the “failure of the judge to allow Lauren Salzman to be cross-examined” is true on its very face. (It most definitely is not, but for sake of this silly little mental exercise, let’s say it is).

All this means is it increases the likelihood of Keith’s case being heard by the actual judges of the 2nd Circuit. That is it.

Practically every defendant convicted claims innocence and attempts appeals. Most never make it past the clerks to even reach the eyes of a judge. The very tiny fraction that do then get quickly dismissed by the judge. Of that fraction that remain, they then get a chance to be added to the schedule to be heard before the judges.

Which is why you know these couch lawyers are full of shit. Most of their theories assume how TV depicts these things are true. That speedy fair trials occur. That everyone involved is interested only in justice. That the justice system is even about justice. That things like appeals are a process that at most takes months, but rarely years. It might not even be 2023 before Keith’s case is even heard by 2nd Circuit, must less a decision is made. Yeah, it can take that long.

The right to a speedy trial has always been relative and only applies to the initial conviction, it does not apply to the appeals process. That has no timetable. It can go as fast or as slow as the clerks and judges involved want it to go. The judges could decide to hear the case tomorrow… and then proceed to not made a judgment until the year 2025 if they so chose to.

Which ironically takes us back to Keith’s biggest mistake he ever made – branding his harem. If not for that, he would not be in jail. And now because of that, there will be no rush to get him out of jail. No judge wants to be known as the one that freed the harem brander. After all, they still dream of sitting on the Supreme Court (unlikely for them but that’s why it’s called a dream). It’s not to say they will not do it if Raniere’s lawyers make a good case, it just means they have no motivation to hurry the process along so Keith’s appeal will go through the slow grind of the justice system at the same multi-year-long pace as everyone else’s.

As for odds of the feds not retrying if the case is entirely overturned… again branded his harem. The sexual sensationalism of the case almost guarantees that they would seriously consider doing it, if only because some ambitious prosecutor  could make his bones on the case for higher office or better paydays at a prestigious law firm. The one that got Keith convicted the first time moved on to a multi-million dollar a year position for example.

So, yeah, it’s a literal coin flip on a retrial. Truly depends on why the case was tossed and the ambition of whoever is assigned the case after.

Notice I don’t bother to get into the merits. It takes more than that the quick summary provided by Keith’s buddy to get a successful appeal. What happened before, during and after is taken into account, the circumstances, would that Salzman testimony changed or impacted the case results and a slew of other questions that there is no point in getting into the weeds on because again – it is years away before it matters.

Branding his harem…the “gift” that keeps on biting Raniere in the ass. Oh, the irony.

Ultimately, this multi-year process is why I keep saying his followers need to direct their energy elsewhere and anything they say or do is pointless and silly.

Anything is better than this “Waiting on Godot” place they are currently in. Their efforts to twist everything into a defense of Keith are well and truly wasted – and prevent them from moving on. If they truly care about the flaws of the justice system, they shouldn’t bother with websites that defend DOS and Keith.

Instead, they should focus their energy on innocent people who do not have access to Keith’s resources and help them get free, regardless if their case seems applicable to Keith’s or not. Even better than getting further ensnared in the quagmire of the justice system, they should simply move on away from it all. Find a new career in a new state, a new significant other and settle down in whatever version of happy they seek to find. The only thing preventing them from effectively “disappearing” is their desire to be seen and heard.

What happens now is well beyond their ability to have any impact. Their attempts to create websites, to use social media, etc. to “defend” Keith is literally an exercise in futility. The judges are not looking at that. It’s not on their radar and never will be. Even if the appellate judges hear the case, it will be on the minutiae of the trial process itself and the details of the case as presented during the trial. Anything beyond that will be ignored unless it’s true, genuine new evidence which is not the direction Keith’s lawyers are going in (They’re looking for malfeasances on the part of the prosecutor and the judge and failing that, the incompetence of Keith’s defense attorney).

So, to ALL of Keith’s followers, I say – move on. Use your energy anywhere else. Watching grass grow is literally more productive than what doing now for your Raniere. What happens next, happens without you and even without Keith. It’s in the purview of the lawyers and the slow grind of the justice system.

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