A few weeks ago, we reported that Federal Prisoner 57005-177 FKA Keith Alan Raniere had somehow injured his wrist while he was awaiting sentencing in the criminal case in which he was convicted of seven federal felonies.
Later, in a separate post, we noted that he was recently hanging out with several Skinheads at his current home-away-from-home, the Metropolitan Detention Center in Brooklyn, NY.
Now comes word that these two events may actually be linked.
Down Goes Vanguard
As it turns out, that wrist injury came about when The Vanguard slipped on the floor in his cell while he was stretching and practicing karate in the middle of the night.
At least that’s the story he told to the Correctional Officers who found him writhing in pain on the floor of his cell – which was reportedly covered in several inches of water.
The water appears to have come from the combination sink/toilet unit in his cell – which, according to Raniere, had somehow become stopped up without him noticing it.
So – stay with me here – according to Raniere, he got up in the middle of the night to do his work-out, slipped on the water on the floor of his cell (which he didn’t notice was there), and fell and severely hurt his wrist.
Sure… That’s as believable as some of Toni Natalie’s tales in her new book (used copies of which are already available on eBay) “The Program: Inside the Mind of Keith Raniere and the Rise and Fall of NXIVM”.
What’s not funny is Raniere’s explanation to the COs as to why he has to exercise in the middle of the night.
According to reports, he explained that he has to do that in order to avoid getting blood clots.
And the reason he might get blood clots is apparently related to some new medication he’s now taking.
In addition to potentially causing blood clots, the new medication has two other negative side effects: (1) it causes extremely bad breath; and (2) it causes what are often referred to as “chipmunk cheeks” (I’m not making this up!).
As it turns out, there are lots of medications that can cause “chipmunk cheeks”.
So, we can only speculate as to what particular medication is causing these problems for The Vanguard.
But given his hard-to-believe explanation for his badly bruised wrist, we can now be fairly certain that his new Skinhead buddies were brought in to prevent any more damage to him before he heads off to whatever prison will have the joy of housing The Vanguard for the next 25-35 years.
*****
The Appeal Is on Hold Until Sentencing
One of the things that is really frustrating Alvin – I mean Keith – is that his lawyers cannot file any sort of appeal until he is actually sentenced.
His sentencing is currently set for 11:00 AM on Friday, January 17th.
But the delay has not caused any drop in his confidence or enthusiasm about the likely outcome of his appeal.
He’s continuing to tell anyone who will listen that the odds of his conviction getting thrown out – and him getting a new trial – are 100%.
And he claims that it was all because of the numerous errors that U.S. District Court Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis made before, during, and after the trial that will force the U.S. Court of Appeals to overturn his conviction and order a new trial.
*****
The Appellate Process
The appellate process for criminal convictions is both complex and lengthy.
Virtually every step is controlled by the Federal Rules of Appellate Procedure – which set forth such things as the issues that can be raised, the length of filings, the applicable filing deadlines, etc.
The timetable begins on the day the sentence is imposed.
For Raniere, that will be on January 17, 2020.
Once the sentence has been imposed, Raniere’s attorneys will have 10-days to file a “Notice of Appeal”.
Thereafter, they will have an additional 20-days – or a total of 30-days from the sentencing date – to file the actual appeal (This is a hard-and-fast deadline – and even a 1-day delay will, barring some very unusual circumstances, result in the denial of the appeal).
The appeal itself is limited to 20 pages – which, given that Raniere wrote approximately 987 pages of Post-It Notes during his trial, will likely make it difficult for him to raise all the points he’ll want to raise to the U.S. Court of Appeals.
After the appeal is filed, it will be reviewed by specially trained law clerks who will then prepare an outline of it for the appellate judges.
Meanwhile, once the appeal is filed, the government will have 30-days to prepare its response to the issues raised in the appeal.
And although Raniere’s attorneys will have to make all their arguments fit within that 20-page limit, the government will have 35-pages to set forth its response.
Once the government’s response has been filed, the case will be put on the court’s calendar. Depending on how many cases are on the court’s docket at that time, this will usually be at least 4-5 months after the appeal was originally filed.
The appellate court is not required to hear oral arguments but it will sometimes do so if there are significant issues of law raised by either side in their filings. Even then, these “oral arguments” are mostly used by the judges to ask specific questions of each side rather than for the attorneys to make presentations to the court.
Once the judges have read the filings – and, if applicable, conducted oral arguments – they will take the case under advisement.
Unfortunately for Raniere, there is no timetable by which an appellate court has to reach a decision – and lengthy delays are more the norm than the exception.
All in all, most attorneys tell their clients that they should expect the appellate process to take 18-24 months from the time the appeal is filed.
That means that Raniere may not find out how his appeal turns out until sometime in late 2021 or early 2022.
*****
Who Will Represent Raniere for His Appeal?
Since we’re still not certain how Judge Garaufis will rule on the question of whether Teny Geragos’ now withdrawn job application to the Office of the U.S. Attorney for the Eastern District of New York created a conflict-of-interest for her and her law firm, we cannot be certain which lawyers will be representing The Vanguard on his appeal.
As previously reported, he’s been meeting with several new attorneys: two groups from New York City and another group from Chicago.
But regardless of who it is, the odds of them winning a new trial for Raniere are slightly below his 100% prediction.
According to the most recent study of appellate cases, the reversal rate in the U.S. Court of Appeals is a paltry 3.78%.
Considerably better than buying a lottery ticket but well under The Vanguard’s declared odds of 100%.
*****
Meanwhile, Frank Report will continue to investigate the details of 57005-177’s fall and the painful injury to his wrist.
After all, he is still the one and only Vanguard we’ll ever know.
Frank Parlato 
Janine Morrison 
J.J. O'Hara 
Richard Luthmann 
Marie White 
Paul Serran
Please leave a comment: Your opinion is important to us!
Krclaviger,
After reading Barbara Bouchey’s post today, Tuesday the 21st…….
Call me crazy but……
……I believe you will not be receiving any Christmas, Hanukkah, or other holiday cards from Barbara Bouchey this year.
😉
[…] Raniere Falls Injuring Wrist While Practicing Midnight Karate After Cell Flooded With Backed-up Toil… […]
Speculatively, Raniere has to follow through with trying an appeal. That is, unless he drowns in his bidet beforehand, choking on vomit, tears and his legendary 15 minute intervals of throwing up blood, a schtick he used to help psychologically enslave a very young lady, while on the phone.
All of the lady Nxivm defendants charged along with Raniere acknowledged guilt and bargained some charges off of their backs, for once without needing to offer any gratuitous blowjobs. It is fun to go into the Twilight Zone and imagine, however unlikely it really is, what might be the language used and what explanations, justifications and mitigating circumstances would embalm the ladies’ various, and potentially quite theatrical appeals.
One would think a competent lawyer could get the hapless senior ballerina, Kathy Russell off, (!) simply due to her bizarrely repetitive, robotic 5th amendment pleading, which appeared to be more severe than anorexic bowel blockage. Like when one eats one too many ringlets of dry Cheerios.
No doubt Kathy Russell could say that “she didn’t understand” the court procedure, had bad representation, was emotionally and psychologically conditioned into a stupor. ” I have been constipated by a cult, for I forget how many years, you honor. I promise you that I shall, forever after, if you will forgive me, go off and live alone in a shack. All I will ever do again is play with my tutu.”
Raniere is a midrange narcissit (see: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2I1noSapCI)
They basically like people to feel sorry for them and use that to manipulate. That is why Keith “cries” at night, why he is always mysteriously sick, why he ran to the bathroom and cried with Dany. They present their weakness so people feel sorry for them and they can manipulate.
Raniere fans: do not fall for it. read on midrange narcissits. So glad this bastard’s in prison.
Thanks frank and team for all the hard work in putting the bastard away
In other words, he’s a manipulative big baby.
I’m a jar half full guy. Maybe we’ll get to see Keith give a karate demonstration at an upcoming Vanguard week!
From the hidden camera footage that was missing from the Epstein case, the true story is Raniere hurt his wrist jerking off, as he was used to women providing this service for him. Also, the chipmunk cheeks have nothing to do with medications and everything to do with Bubba stretching Raniere’s cheeks, and not just those near his mouth.
Scott,
I enjoyed reading your rather creative-fanciful assessment of Vanguard’s “cheeks” using double entendre. I wonder, if perhaps, you could benefit from indulging your carnal imagination, and see if your unconscious mind is sending you a message about thy self.
…….Another words In language you will under…… I am simply saying you might bat for the other team.
Could it be all this time you have not been a Texan Cowboy……
But the cowboy from the Village People?
😉
There’s as much of a chance of that and whether it was me doing the energy drink/milk demonstration or you overcoming your fear and coming on my radio show. LOL
Scott,
“There’s not much chance of that”…..
How do you know? What if your subconscious is sending you secret messages?
I think you should consult with Flowers or Frank Parlato regarding these odd thoughts your having.
They are both wise in the ways of the world.
The word is “you’re,” not “your.” Your subconscious needs to send your brain the correct word, consult Flowers or Frank Parlato if you have any questions, they are both wise in the ways of spelling simple words. LOL
It will be interesting to anticipate the specific, logistic arguments, as the details used to make any appeal on Raniere’s behalf. If his exact team of legal representatives are still a nebulous, potential combination of people, to whom would Raniere be communicating now, as his attorney or mouthpiece?
Since formulating an appeal needs time, effort and usually will be progressively expensive, what would Raniere be doing now, if he were rationally functional, to be preparing, to be ready? He has to be able to sustain volition through quick time requirements to generate an acceptable appeal. He has to have his dunce cap off and his thinking hat lit and ready for business.
He is, apparently, talking about karate catastrophes steeped in urinal juices, which were a huge surprise to him. “Help! I’ve fallen and I can’t get up.”
Blood clots and chipmunk cheeks. Head lice and scabies. Insanely accidental instances of indefinitely based mild-to-medium pandemonium. Back pains, medications and owies, ouchies and boo-hoos and boo-boos. Involuntary success.
“Vanguard” has lost momentum and no longer commands his audience. He now dwells in the land of “it’s always something, some big mess I can’t control.”
Even the Dutch Aruban who has never been caught for the murder of Natalie Holloway was a more organized criminal, and yet look where Joran van der Slut is now, living in a Peruvian prison. After his Peruvian imprisonment, on a separate murder conviction, has been completed, he’s up for custodial, international extradition, already set in stone, to face more charges elsewhere.
In a sense, a built-in aspect of Raniere’s appeal process right now as things stand, is that really, Judge Garaufis has the final word and eminent domain. Is that not the way the deck is shuffled, dealt, played? Currently Garaufis captains the ship and would have already anticipated most of Raniere’s appeal strategies. He has had plenty of experience, enough to guess, estimate moves made on behalf of the criminal, Raniere.
Essentially, the Judge decides, so let’s see what decisions he will make and deliver, and not only for Raniere. He didn’t plea bargain, and has been accumulating potential time served to apply to his sentence. His plea-bargaining minions, housebound and monitored-or-not, have no time served ahead of sentencing, right?
It doesn’t look like Raniere is ready to rumble, though. What I want to see if whether or not Judge Nicholas Garaufis is. Or not.
Just wait for his first staph. (MRSA) infection. Lets hope he’s learned to wash his hands after using that overflowing urinal and remembers to place his hand over his mouth when he coughs. Common parts only. In his own cell he can lie around like a pig in sh*t all day.
Which for most of us is a figure of speech.
Just to claify: The Vanguard does not have a cell. He has a Library and Creativity Room.
We all share the blame for this tragedy…
Poor baby. Keith stubbed his little toe. looking forward to hearing more about how the worlds fastest sprinter escapes a closet in Mexico.
Here’s a suggestion for the next time KAR’s toilet overflows.
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/ALVIN-AND-THE-CHIPMUNKS-McDONALDS-TOYS-Happy-Meals-Used-Played/123907294191?hash=item1cd97343ef:g:5n4AAOSw5ZVdfdSy&redirect=mobile
Will you please break down the appellate statistics? The 3.78% is a very low number. Is there an estimated cost to go through this process?
Peaches,
Click on that link in the article about the latest report on appellate cases – and you’ll get more details about where that 3.78% figure comes from.
Also, one of the biggest factors appears to be who was the trial court judge (i.e., some judges get overturned much more so than others). I haven’t been able to find any comprehensive numbers as to how often Judge Garufis has been overturned – but it doesn’t appear to have happened very often.
As to how much Raniere will spend on his appeal, I would estimate $500,000 – $1,000,000. The more he meets with various attorneys, the higher the bill.
I attempted to read the article first is why I asked. Its hard to understand fully. Its interesting what I have comprehended so far. I never really took into consideration that if these people get the upward of a maximum sentence that most, not all can appeal. I think because of their plea deals? Also, if Clare is locked away, can she still maintain the cash flow to support her friends?
While anyone who is convicted at trial has an absolute right to appeal the conviction, those who plead guilty rather than go to trial – like Nancy, Lauren, Allison, Clare, and Kathy – have very limited rights to appeal. For most defendants who plead guilty – and then change their minds – they will have to prove (1) there was no factual basis for their plea; (2) they didn’t understand the charges against them; or (3) they were misinformed by their counsel.
Remember all those questions the judge asked each of Raniere’s co-defendants before he accepted their guilty plea (e.g., Did you have anything to drink last night? Are you happy with your attorney? Do you understand the charges against you?)? And remember the detailed allocution that each of them was required to read into the record? Both of those things were done to ensure that they would not be able to raise those issues on appeal – or, if they did, that their claims would be summarily denied.
Defendants who plead guilty can generally appeal the length of their sentence. But in Clare’s case, she can only do that if the sentence is for more than 27 months.
So, one of the reasons the turnover rate is so low is because very few people who plead guilty rather than go to trial subsequently file appeals. And as previously noted in other posts, 97% of federal defendants choose not to go to trial.
So, defendants like Raniere have a very steep hill to climb when they decide to appeal. They have to show that the trial judge erred – and erred in such a significant way – in order to get a new trial. That’s a very high threshold to overcome – which is why the turnover rate is so low.
Sidenote: If, after a plea deal was entered into, facts emerge to show that there was no basis for charging the defendant in the first place, then that plea deal may be successfully challenged. Does that sound like a situation that’s been discussed here on Frank Report?
Krclaviger,
“One of the things that is really frustrating, Alvin”. Very funny. Krclaviger I always appreciate how you fit in something humorous.
Regarding Vanguard’s latest injuries…….Is it fair to say Keith Raniere has learned to lie and not rat out other inmates? LOL
Great legal summary for us lay people.
Great to see your back KRClaviger!
******
Re drugs that cause facial cheek swelling:
For those that are interested and too lazy to Google facial swelling drug interactions……..
Facial swelling is a common side effect of some drugs, including:
ACE inhibitors for high blood pressure (enalapril, lisinopril, ramipril)
ARBs for high blood pressure (irbesartan, losartan, valsartan)
Corticosteroids
Estrogen
Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (aspirin, ibuprofen, naproxen)
Thiazolidinediones (pioglitazone, rosiglitazone) for diabetes
Too bad Raniere does not have his girl friends to play late night volleyball with.
Here is a song for Alvin Raniere to sing.
“Chipmunks Roasting on an Open Fire” by Bob Rivers
Something will soon be roasting. ….a few sets of saggy old chestnuts, I would guess.