With a Lukewarm Endorsement From Feds –Fate Draws Near for Allison Mack – and Lauren Salzman’s Is Close Behind

By K.R. Claviger

In the end, the sentences that are calculated for Allison Mack and Lauren from the Sentencing Guidelines should be quite similar because they both pleaded guilty to the same two counts: Racketeering and Racketeering Conspiracy.

See HERE for a Wikipedia article concerning the federal Sentencing Guidelines.

During their plea hearings, the prosecution also delineated all the predicate acts that supported their individual guilty pleas for Racketeering.

For Allison, those predicate acts included the following:

Racketeering Act Ten: State Law Extortion

Racketeering Act Thirteen: Forced Labor of Jane Doe 9

And for Lauren, those predicate acts included the following:

Racketeering Act Nine: Trafficking Of Jane Doe 4 For Labor And Services – and Document Servitude Of Jane Doe 4

Racketeering Act Ten: State Law Extortion

Racketeering Act Thirteen: Forced Labor of Jane Doe 9

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Will the Guidelines Calculations Be the Same?

So, in analyzing the process whereby the Office of Probation & Pretrial Services calculated their respective sentencing guidelines, one would expect that Lauren’s might be slightly larger than Allison’s simply because she pleaded guilty to one more predicate act than Allison did.

That extra predicate act involved Lauren’s participation in keeping Jane Doe 4 [Daniela] confined in a room for almost 2-years, during which time Jane Doe 4 was required to produce book reports – and various other writings – for Keith Raniere. If Jane Doe 4 did not comply with all those requests, she was to be sent back to Mexico without any of her credentials and/or identification papers – which is exactly what happened to her in the end.

In both instances, the guidelines provide for some “downward departure” if the defendant provided substantial assistance to – and cooperation with – the prosecution with respect to other aspects of the case: e.g., providing evidence, testifying in court, identifying others who participated in the criminal enterprise, etc.

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Allison’s Sentencing

In Allison’s case, the prosecution gave a rather lukewarm endorsement concerning the assistance and cooperation that she provided (The prosecution also acknowledged that Allison was prepared to testify as a witness against Raniere but that she was not called to do so). After noting that the “Victim Impact Statements” that were submitted in her case indicate that Allison caused “extraordinary harm and pain to the victims in this case”, the prosecution then goes on to state that she “provided substantial assistance to the government in the prosecution of certain of her co-defendants” and then provides some details concerning what that assistance was.

At the conclusion of its sentencing memorandum, the prosecution “requests the Court impose a sentence below the applicable Guidelines range”.  

Once again, despite the fact that several media outlets have treated that wording as a strong request for a reduction in Allison’s sentence, I do not believe that is the case.

In fact, that request was rather perfunctory – and not likely to draw much notice from Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis.

We don’t know how many of Allison’s victims are going to show up to speak at her sentencing. But we do know that Judge Garaufis took the extraordinary step of setting aside a second day for her sentencing hearing just in case there are lots of them.

Taking all that into account, I now believe that Allison will likely be sentenced to at least 9 years and maybe as many as 13.

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Lauren’s Sentencing

We don’t know yet what the prosecution is going to say in terms of Lauren’s assistance and cooperation – but it will likely be much stronger than what it had to say about Allison’s help.

We also don’t know how many victims are going to submit “Victim Impact Statements” with regard to Lauren and/or how bombastic and vitriolic they will be. And finally, we don’t know how many victims will show up at Lauren’s sentencing hearing next month to speak directly to her and the court.

So, even if the applicable Sentencing Guidelines range for Lauren is the same as – or even slightly larger than – Allison’s 14–17.5 years, she may end up with a lesser prison sentence when she is sentenced by Judge Garaufis next month. How much lower will determine whether Lauren’s decision to cooperate – and to testify at Keith’s trial as a prosecution witness – were good ones.

All in all, if Allison ends up with a 9-13 year prison sentence, I think Lauren will end up with one that is in the 5-7 range.

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Sentence Predictions

Trying to predict sentences for defendants that have pleaded guilty – or who been found guilty – is definitely more art than science.

Especially when there are multiple defendants in the case.

But at least in this case, we already have two co-defendants who have already been sentenced by the same judge who will mete out sentences to Allison and Lauren – which provides us with a little insight into his beliefs and standards when it comes to sentencing.

Although Keith Raniere’s 120-year sentence was arguably within the guidelines, it was still extremely harsh by just about any standard.

And Clare Bronfman’s 81-month sentence was three times the higher amount in her applicable Sentencing Guideline range of 21-27 months.

So, while I’ll stick with my predictions of 9-13 years for Allison – and 5-7 years for Lauren – I would not be shocked if both of those turn out to be too low. Nor would I be surprised if the two sentences are closer together.

What would shock me is if Judge Garaufis decided to go further below the applicable Sentencing Guidelines range for either of them.

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The End Is in Sight

We’ll know what Allison’s sentence will be in less than a week – and Lauren’s sentencing will take place less than a month after that.

So, hang in there Frank Report readers, we are about to learn the fate of two more people who were key players in the NXIVM/DOS criminal enterprise.

And after that, we’ll just have two more to go: the one-time penultimate leader of the NXIVM/ESP criminal enterprise, Nancy Salzman – and the organization’s former bookkeeper, Kathy Russell, who reportedly knows a great deal about the whereabouts of a lot of the enterprise’s ill-gotten gains.

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K.R. Claviger