By K.R. Claviger
In the end, the sentences that are calculated for Allison Mack and Lauren from the Sentencing Guidelines should be quite similar because they both pleaded guilty to the same two counts: Racketeering and Racketeering Conspiracy.
See HERE for a Wikipedia article concerning the federal Sentencing Guidelines.
During their plea hearings, the prosecution also delineated all the predicate acts that supported their individual guilty pleas for Racketeering.
For Allison, those predicate acts included the following:
Racketeering Act Ten: State Law Extortion
Racketeering Act Thirteen: Forced Labor of Jane Doe 9
And for Lauren, those predicate acts included the following:
Racketeering Act Nine: Trafficking Of Jane Doe 4 For Labor And Services – and Document Servitude Of Jane Doe 4
Racketeering Act Ten: State Law Extortion
Racketeering Act Thirteen: Forced Labor of Jane Doe 9
**********
Will the Guidelines Calculations Be the Same?
So, in analyzing the process whereby the Office of Probation & Pretrial Services calculated their respective sentencing guidelines, one would expect that Lauren’s might be slightly larger than Allison’s simply because she pleaded guilty to one more predicate act than Allison did.
That extra predicate act involved Lauren’s participation in keeping Jane Doe 4 [Daniela] confined in a room for almost 2-years, during which time Jane Doe 4 was required to produce book reports – and various other writings – for Keith Raniere. If Jane Doe 4 did not comply with all those requests, she was to be sent back to Mexico without any of her credentials and/or identification papers – which is exactly what happened to her in the end.
In both instances, the guidelines provide for some “downward departure” if the defendant provided substantial assistance to – and cooperation with – the prosecution with respect to other aspects of the case: e.g., providing evidence, testifying in court, identifying others who participated in the criminal enterprise, etc.
**********
Allison’s Sentencing
In Allison’s case, the prosecution gave a rather lukewarm endorsement concerning the assistance and cooperation that she provided (The prosecution also acknowledged that Allison was prepared to testify as a witness against Raniere but that she was not called to do so). After noting that the “Victim Impact Statements” that were submitted in her case indicate that Allison caused “extraordinary harm and pain to the victims in this case”, the prosecution then goes on to state that she “provided substantial assistance to the government in the prosecution of certain of her co-defendants” and then provides some details concerning what that assistance was.
At the conclusion of its sentencing memorandum, the prosecution “requests the Court impose a sentence below the applicable Guidelines range”.
Once again, despite the fact that several media outlets have treated that wording as a strong request for a reduction in Allison’s sentence, I do not believe that is the case.
In fact, that request was rather perfunctory – and not likely to draw much notice from Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis.
We don’t know how many of Allison’s victims are going to show up to speak at her sentencing. But we do know that Judge Garaufis took the extraordinary step of setting aside a second day for her sentencing hearing just in case there are lots of them.
Taking all that into account, I now believe that Allison will likely be sentenced to at least 9 years and maybe as many as 13.
**********
Lauren’s Sentencing
We don’t know yet what the prosecution is going to say in terms of Lauren’s assistance and cooperation – but it will likely be much stronger than what it had to say about Allison’s help.
We also don’t know how many victims are going to submit “Victim Impact Statements” with regard to Lauren and/or how bombastic and vitriolic they will be. And finally, we don’t know how many victims will show up at Lauren’s sentencing hearing next month to speak directly to her and the court.
So, even if the applicable Sentencing Guidelines range for Lauren is the same as – or even slightly larger than – Allison’s 14–17.5 years, she may end up with a lesser prison sentence when she is sentenced by Judge Garaufis next month. How much lower will determine whether Lauren’s decision to cooperate – and to testify at Keith’s trial as a prosecution witness – were good ones.
All in all, if Allison ends up with a 9-13 year prison sentence, I think Lauren will end up with one that is in the 5-7 range.
**********
Sentence Predictions
Trying to predict sentences for defendants that have pleaded guilty – or who been found guilty – is definitely more art than science.
Especially when there are multiple defendants in the case.
But at least in this case, we already have two co-defendants who have already been sentenced by the same judge who will mete out sentences to Allison and Lauren – which provides us with a little insight into his beliefs and standards when it comes to sentencing.
Although Keith Raniere’s 120-year sentence was arguably within the guidelines, it was still extremely harsh by just about any standard.
And Clare Bronfman’s 81-month sentence was three times the higher amount in her applicable Sentencing Guideline range of 21-27 months.
So, while I’ll stick with my predictions of 9-13 years for Allison – and 5-7 years for Lauren – I would not be shocked if both of those turn out to be too low. Nor would I be surprised if the two sentences are closer together.
What would shock me is if Judge Garaufis decided to go further below the applicable Sentencing Guidelines range for either of them.
**********
The End Is in Sight
We’ll know what Allison’s sentence will be in less than a week – and Lauren’s sentencing will take place less than a month after that.
So, hang in there Frank Report readers, we are about to learn the fate of two more people who were key players in the NXIVM/DOS criminal enterprise.
And after that, we’ll just have two more to go: the one-time penultimate leader of the NXIVM/ESP criminal enterprise, Nancy Salzman – and the organization’s former bookkeeper, Kathy Russell, who reportedly knows a great deal about the whereabouts of a lot of the enterprise’s ill-gotten gains.
**********
Frank Parlato 
Janine Morrison 
J.J. O'Hara 
Richard Luthmann 
Marie White 
Paul Serran
Please leave a comment: Your opinion is important to us!
What about Michelle Salzman Loshin Myers? Is she getting prosecuted too? And what about where all the money went? Could it have gone to Nancy’s sister, Carole Kass Loshin, and her husband, Steve Kass, of Tofutti? And what about Lorraine Loshin and Milton Loshin? The money went somewhere…
I believe Allison Mack will get about 6 years.
After what happened to Clare, she’s has to be to pretty damn scared.
I don’t see Lauren getting less of a sentence than Clare and the crimes she plead guilty to are worse than Allison’s. Lauren was Allison’s superior in NXIVM. Allison lost all her money in NXIVM whereas Lauren only profited. Allison had power over 6 women, her DOS pod, 3 of whom said their experience was positive (Nicki, Danielle, Michelle). Lauren had power over all of DOS and all of NXIVM. I say Allison gets 9 years and Lauren gets 12.
Deservedly so.
Hey, Claviger…
Allison will not get 9-13 years, you fucken legal dunce.
She’ll face a maximum of 7 years.
Besides, you and Frank spent the last year saying that Allie Mack’s ‘guidelines’ would be 3-5 years —- which means you were WAY OFF in the wrong direction, you god damn legal newbie.
How can a seasoned lawyer not be able to calculate sentencing guidelines?
Is that why it took you 6 tries to pass the BAR exam? Methinks yes.
Thus, after FAILING to give us her true guidelines for the last year… You’re now giving us a prediction that’s WAY OFF in the opposite direction, by claiming she’ll get 9-13 years. You’re ‘overcompensating’ for your previous underestimations.
Guess what, asshole? She’s facing 7 years maximum, possibly as low as 4 years. But not more than 7 years.
The judge is a fair guy. He won’t bury her —– and she’s more likely to get less time rather than more time. She could get 48 months, maybe even half that in prison with the other half probation.
You, on the other hand, should consider improving the world by leaping from the tallest place you can find.
But if you’re leaping into water (i.e., bridge, etc), please allow an extra few hundred feet of elevation — to ensure the job gets completed to finality. 🙂
Now go study for the BAR exam.
Better yet, go write your support letter for Allison (like Frank has asked you to do).
Don’t you dare pretend that Frank hasn’t recruited you to join the letter writing campaign that he’s organizing with my Empress, on Allison’s behalf, to sway the judge in her favor.
(my Empress holds sway over all living things on FrankReport, including your own sorry ass).
It’s so cute that all 3 of you are running around and stressing out this week, while trying to get Allie Mack a lesser sentence.
It’s so adorable that you, Frank and Empress Heidi honestly believe that Allison likes or respects you.
Newsflash: She doesn’t give 2 fucks about any of you.
IMO, she’d go right back to Keith if he’d take her back, once her sentence is over.
Frank is in love, I think, which would explain why he’s obsessing over Allie Mack’s fate so much. Frank won’t be sleeping the night before her sentencing, he’ll be too stressed out.
That’s how true love works (in this case it’s just one way love, since she only sees Frank as a USEFUL IDIOT).
Frank is Allie’s useful idiot. That’s why he’s angry at Kreuk, since I have no doubt that he probably asked Kreuk to write a support letter for Allison to the judge (thru an intermediary) —- but she probably ignored his request.
Have a great day. 🙂
Lauren is evil and deserves a sentence every bit as long as Allison. Lauren was higher ranked than Allison in NXIVM and made a lot of money on the backs of Keith’s abuse victims. She made tens of thousands of dollars for every NXIVM training she taught and hundreds of dollars an hour for every EM she gave.
When Frank exposed DOS, it was NXIVM leader Lauren who Keith entrusted to address the allegations to the NXIVM community. It was Lauren who Keith knew would lie to everyone because Lauren was 20 years into lying for Keith in exchange for all the money and power he showered her with. It was Lauren who edited Sarah Edmondson’s branding video for release to the press. If Sarah’s husband hadn’t flipped out or Lauren never recruited her, all this hideousness would probably still be happening. With Lauren at the top, exploiting, destroying and profiting. I hope the Judge sees that and Lauren’s victims continue to speak out.
Why do you think the prosecution never called Allison as a witness
They didn’t need her.
Superb article, of course. I expect a “downward departure” for both of them.
I agree that the prosecution’s request for a downward departure was lukewarm. I also noted that their filing quoted at length from the damning audio exchange between Mack and Raniere. The one where he describes the branding ritual in obscene detail, and she assents to each and every one of them. Thus reminding the judge of her knowledge of, assent to, and eager active participation in the worst of the DOS crimes.
Judge Garaufis is going to nail her to the wall. Lauren too. Just look to his sentencing of Raniere and Bronfman. Way above guidelines. He won’t go that far above in Lauren’s and Mack’s cases, but I wouldn’t be surprised at decade plus prison terms for each of these felons. DOS was no ordinary racket.
Time moves slowly in jail/prison.
If Lauren gets Claviger’s minimum sentence of 5 years, she would leave prison in 4.25 years.
4.25 years is 1,551 days. That’s a lot of time, a lot of waiting, a lot of loneliness.
Anyone, everyone needs a plan/a structure to deal with this. Those that succeed best have a mission” e.g., a purpose bigger than themselves, a way to help others less fortunate, etc.
Allison and Lauren are intelligent, competent women; they have a lot to give and teach to others. In doing so, they have the opportunity to have a meaningful and transforming prison experience.
They obviously have a lot, Tom. They need to give that lot to people like you. Human and animal society do not need that lot.
Allison Mack will have plenty of time on her hands over the next several years and she makes a big show of loving literature and studying the classics like Shakespeare.
In the spirit of being helpful, here is a book to occupy her time and make a better person of herself.
Back in college for my History class, I was assigned to read Alexander Solzhenitsyn’s “One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich”
It is the story of a Russian peasant sentenced to serve several years in the Soviet prison camps.
It follows one day of Ivan’s routines.
One Day in the Life of Ivan Denisovich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/One_Day_in_the_Life_of_Ivan_Denisovich
Another good book to help Allison Mack pass the time of day is Arthur Koestler’s “Darkness at Noon”.
It is the story of a Russian government official accused of treason.
Without giving away the plot, it has an abrupt surprise ending.
“Darkness at Noon” is another ripping good read.
Darkness at Noon
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Darkness_at_Noon
Don’t ever say that Shadow State is unhelpful.
My reading proposal is “My Fight” by Adolf Hitler. The best book one can read in any situation.
The book outlines the main ideas that the Führer would put into practice during his government that would begin on January 30, 1933.
This work can be considered as one of the most relevant and important books in world history.
https://es.metapedia.org/wiki/Mi_Lucha
I think even us english speakers are familiar with the book title Mein Kampf no need for translation.
Are these available in federal prison? I would like to read an article about the libraries where the NXIVM perps reside(d). We (rightly) hear about their miserable food and ventilation, I’m curious about the books as well.
Allison Mack will have plenty of time to autograph photos to flog over the internet.
It’s about time it been too long it will be interesting i’m just glad it’s coming to the end as i walk through knox woods i still imagine keith walking and allison running over to his house, hugging him
I hope you get your neighborhood back soon and NXIVM fades away like a bad dream.
Yes, thank you. At least I can walk my dog at nigh now. Keith told me he was worried about me he said be careful to me one night. Yikes and he would protect me