Again, this is another post with my rank speculation:
Nancy Salzman, president of NXIVM – the women who was given the title Prefect – will flip on Keith Raniere – if she is faced with prison. Neither her, nor her daughter, Lauren, will willingly go to jail for Keith Raniere. They may have no choice at this stage.
But, if they do, given the choice of jail or freedom, they will flip on Keith Raniere.
What needs to happen is they need to believe they are really going to jail. Perhaps they do not believe it – yet.
Perhaps, however, as of two days ago, when Keith was denied bail – they began to believe. Why should they have believed before? In the past, they have always gotten out of everything. Two days ago was a day of reckoning for Keith in a court system he has long abused. Up until then, NXIVM’s top women might have felt he would win at trial.
I can guess what they were thinking: The trial would be a case where far more women would testify that DOS was voluntary – than the few Jane Does who are going to say it was coercion. Keith himself thought – at least until he was denied bail – that he was going to win the case. But then again, Keith is a gambling addict, a cocky narcissist, a delusional, cocky little gambler. He has a long history of getting what he wants. While betting other people’s money. This time his ass is on the table.
Even though he was arrested, however, he might have been thinking, “this is all a very weak case and I can win it. I need to get out and handle the strategy in the luxury I’m accustomed to.”
His bail package denial was a game changer for him and others. In many ways, the bail package was tight and compelling. The former head of the secret service – Mark Sullivan – was in court. Raniere’s main attorneys, Paul DerOhanessian -who likely wrote much of the bail package – and Marc Agnifilo – who made the oral argument – gave sound legal arguments – as far as it went. As far as it could go.
Maybe they thought they stood a good chance. But the judge was not buying Keith as an ethicist. Perhaps it was, in a sense, the first time Keith did not have more muscle and legal power in court than his opponents. He has prompted some 50 lawsuits with Bronfman money and his bullying ways – and two days ago he was not the bully. I suspect Keith was terrified – got set over the edge.
[Throughout his appearance, he looked like a little chipmunk. Slouched over – waiting to pounce on a nut or a berry or a bird egg. Some reporter noted he looked often at Moira Penza. I suppose he did [although you never can tell – because of his cross eyes – who he is looking at] – that if he was really looking at Moira, and especially if he was trying to catch her eye, then he was trying to hypnotize her. Send her a mental suggestion that she should wake up and realize Allison Mack is behind this all – not innocent little harmless tiny baby boy Keith. ]
For Lauren and Nancy, up until two days ago, they may have not had compelling reason to think the world’s smartest man was going to get it. They who laundered money for him, committed tax evasion, paid nannies and other workers in cash for years. Hid his money. Helped him punish others. They never worried, or looked over their shoulders. They knew the authorities in their town did not care, would not do anything. Keith handled everything.
I think for some time – since Keith was arrested – until two days ago – they thought – sure, they might be arrested – but they did not think it would amount to much – certainly not a conviction. Now, perhaps, Nancy and Lauren – and maybe Karen Unterreiner – are beginning to realize this is serious. Now, Karen Unterriener is a loyal old dog for Keith. She was around from his college days and procured for him his ‘sweet treat’ of underage girls. She would counsel them and drive them home after he slept with them — she and he – both adults and the girls 13- 14 – 15. She knows all about Keith and his sex crimes, his pedophilia, and all of – or most of – his financial crimes.
Up until two days ago – that fateful day when Keith Alan Raniere was denied bail – perhaps she and the two Salzmans thought he [and they] were going to get out of it. As of yesterday, Karen might have started thinking about what she knows and what she can tell and what is it worth?
Is it worth anything that she handled with the late Gina Hutchinson – the fake IQ test that Keith used as his sole claim to be the smartest man in the world? Could she testify about that – to prove he committed fraud – to all those suckers who came in and actually believed he had taken some honest IQ test and were induced to pay money for intensives created by the world’s smarted man?
In the final analysis, Nancy and Lauren, I predict, will flip faster than Karen U. But she will flip too. They all will. If any believe they are facing 10 years or better in jail – really believe it – and all they have to do is admit to what they did and get immunity – they will flip. Nancy, Lauren and Karen U will flip before they go to jail.
But do they believe yet? I think up until Keith’s bail was denied – they did not think he did not have control, the money, and the power to get out of jail. Now, I think they fear he is in for the duration and it could happen to them. None of these women have millions to post bail like Allison did.
And Lauren is obsessive compulsive, A nervous person, a worrier. She hates to make commitments. She will not want a 15 year commitment in prison. In a training room, she is good. In a jail cell, she will be horrid. She wants to go to the store to look at clothes, not wear the same dull green jumpsuit every day. And she is a cry baby. She will want now to go to mommy and get out of this.
Sure, Lauren and Nancy had a rivalry and Keith pitted them against each other. Lauren is more intelligent than Nancy. Nancy is more skilled. Keith knew how to handle each. They competed for Keith and the limelight. Keith encouraged it. But now there is no Keith. He has seen no visitors in prison other than his lawyers. Nancy and Lauren have not seen Keith in months.
They all thought – though with his lawyers present – they were going to see Keith in his new private mansion prison – and he would direct them on what to do. They all expected to be in New York City – seeing Keith – getting his direction. Imagine the shock – that now they cannot see him. He is an invisible Vanguard.
Nancy and Lauren will now bond – they must – and they will bond over not being a martyr for Keith. They will have each other’s back in this. They will bond together in a way they haven’t in years – ever since Keith pitted them against each other and slept first with mother then daughter. Two days ago, Keith saw his life pass before his very eyes.
And now Lauren and Nancy and even Karen know it too.
Their time is ripe and the feds if they need them should make for the harvest.