With Raniere’s bail denied, Lauren, Nancy and Karen must be shocked and frightened – now is time for them to flip

Lauren Salzman [right] with her mother Nancy. Lauren got into NXIVM thanks to her mother and at an age when she was impressionable.

Again, this is another post with my rank speculation:

Nancy Salzman, president of NXIVM – the women who was given the title Prefect – will flip on Keith Raniere – if she is faced with prison. Neither her, nor her daughter, Lauren, will willingly go to jail for Keith Raniere. They may have no choice at this stage.

But, if they do, given the choice of jail or freedom, they will flip on Keith Raniere.

What needs to happen is they need to believe they are really going to jail. Perhaps they do not believe it – yet.

Perhaps, however, as of two days ago, when Keith was denied bail – they began to believe.  Why should they have believed before? In the past, they have always gotten out of everything.  Two days ago was a day of reckoning for Keith in a court system he has long abused. Up until then, NXIVM’s top women might have felt he would win at trial.

I can guess what they were thinking: The trial would be a case where far more women would testify that DOS was voluntary – than the few Jane Does who are going to say it was coercion.  Keith himself thought – at least until he was denied bail – that he was going to win the case.  But then again, Keith is a gambling addict, a cocky narcissist, a delusional, cocky little gambler. He has a long history of getting what he wants. While betting other people’s money. This time his ass is on the table.

Even though he was arrested, however, he might have been thinking, “this is all a very weak case and I can win it. I need to get out and handle the strategy in the luxury I’m accustomed to.”

His bail package denial was a game changer for him and others.  In many ways, the bail package was tight and compelling. The former head of the secret service – Mark Sullivan – was in court. Raniere’s main attorneys, Paul DerOhanessian -who likely wrote much of the bail package – and Marc Agnifilo – who made the oral argument – gave sound legal arguments – as far as it went. As far as it could go.

Maybe they thought they stood a good chance. But the judge was not buying Keith as an ethicist. Perhaps it was, in a sense, the first time Keith did not have more muscle and legal power in court than his opponents. He has prompted some 50 lawsuits with Bronfman money and his bullying ways – and two days ago he was not the bully.  I suspect Keith was terrified – got set over the edge.

[Throughout his appearance, he looked like a little chipmunk. Slouched over – waiting to pounce on a nut or a berry or a bird egg.  Some reporter noted he looked often at Moira Penza. I suppose he did [although you never can tell – because of his cross eyes – who he is looking at] – that if he was really looking at Moira, and especially if he was trying to catch her eye, then he was trying to hypnotize her. Send her a mental suggestion that she should wake up and realize Allison Mack is behind this all – not innocent little harmless tiny baby boy Keith. ]

For Lauren and Nancy, up until two days ago, they may have not had compelling reason to think the world’s smartest man was going to get it.  They who laundered money for him, committed tax evasion, paid nannies and other workers in cash for years. Hid his money. Helped him punish others.  They never worried, or looked over their shoulders. They knew the authorities in their town did not care, would not do anything. Keith handled everything.

I think for some time – since Keith was arrested – until two days ago – they thought – sure, they might be arrested – but they did not think it would amount to much – certainly not a conviction.   Now, perhaps, Nancy and Lauren – and maybe Karen Unterreiner – are beginning to realize this is serious.  Now, Karen Unterriener is a loyal old dog for Keith.  She was around from his college  days and procured for him his ‘sweet treat’ of underage girls. She would counsel them and drive them home after he slept with them — she and he – both adults and the girls 13- 14 – 15.  She knows all about Keith and his sex crimes, his pedophilia, and all of – or most of – his financial crimes.

Up until two days ago – that fateful day when Keith Alan Raniere was denied bail – perhaps she and the two Salzmans thought he [and they] were going to get out of it. As of yesterday, Karen might have started thinking about what she knows and what she can tell and what is it worth?

Is it worth anything that she handled with the late Gina Hutchinson – the fake IQ test that Keith used as his sole claim to be the smartest man in the world? Could she testify about that – to prove he committed fraud – to all those suckers who came in and actually believed he had taken some honest IQ test and were induced to pay money for intensives created by the world’s smarted man?

In the final analysis, Nancy and Lauren, I predict, will flip faster than Karen U. But she will flip too. They all will.  If any believe they are facing 10 years or better in jail – really believe it – and all they have to do is admit to what they did and get immunity – they will  flip.  Nancy, Lauren and Karen U will flip before they go to jail.

But do they believe yet? I think up until Keith’s bail was denied – they did not think he did not have control, the money, and the power to get out of jail.  Now, I think they fear he is in for the duration and it could happen to them. None of these women have millions to post bail like Allison did.

And Lauren is obsessive compulsive,  A nervous person, a worrier. She hates to make commitments. She will not want a 15 year commitment in prison. In a training room, she is good. In a jail cell, she will be horrid.  She wants to go to the store to look at clothes, not wear the same dull green jumpsuit every day. And she is a cry baby.  She will want now to go to mommy and get out of this.

Sure, Lauren and Nancy had a rivalry and Keith pitted them against each other. Lauren is more intelligent than Nancy. Nancy is more skilled. Keith knew how to handle each. They competed for Keith and the limelight. Keith encouraged it.  But now there is no Keith. He has seen no visitors in prison other than his lawyers. Nancy and Lauren have not seen Keith in months.

They all thought – though with his lawyers present – they were going to see Keith in his new private mansion prison – and he would direct them on what to do.  They all expected to be in New York City – seeing Keith – getting his direction. Imagine the shock – that now they cannot see him. He is an invisible Vanguard.

Nancy and Lauren will now bond – they must – and they will bond over not being a martyr for Keith. They will have each other’s back in this. They will bond together in a way they haven’t in years – ever since Keith pitted them against each other and slept first with mother then daughter.  Two days ago, Keith saw his life pass before his very eyes.

And now Lauren and Nancy and even Karen know it too.

Their time is ripe and the feds if they need them should make for the harvest.


About the author

Frank Parlato


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  • I agree with you Frank.

    The same is true for India Oxenberg. She’s strikes me as the most impressionable of the bunch. What I mean is, she’s likely to be the most loyal to Keith IF somebody doesn’t make her realize that Keith isn’t gonna beat the charges and come back home for Christmas.

    Catherine Oxenberg doesn’t need to de-program India……..she only needs to find a way to help India realize that the charges against Keith are airtight and that his own emails make it impossible for her to save Keith by lying on the witness stand. This will be easier once the new indictments come out and Keith is hit with numerous new charges.

    India needs to be made to realize that no matter how many DOS slaves say Keith knew nothing, his own emails have already told the jury that he did know about DOS and was the ‘grandmaster’.

    Once she realizes that she can’t save Keith and that things will never “return to normal”…….she’ll likely flip and get a great plea deal by the government.

    But to be honest… It’s hard to imagine India actually testifying against Keith “live” at a trial with Keith staring at her…….since she really does strike me as a person with very little mental defense to those people she looks up to. …and she looks up to Keith like a God. I just can’t see her dissing Keith on the witness stand and saying he’s a fraud. I hope I’m wrong though. 🙂

    • Hold your analysis. The FBI/DOJ doesn’t need India to flip. They probably have enough to lock all of them up for a very long time.

  • Rumor is NXIVM, Emi and Alex are still teaching NXIVM course work in Mexico. Has anyone else heard this?

  • Maybe once they are all in prison, Netflix will have a live Orange Is the New Black and we can watch with glee! I’m renewing my subscription right now just in case. They could call it Branded after the old Chuck Conners show theme song could be That’s the night the lights went out in Clifton Park…..

  • I think it’s important for even Satan to have an advocate.

    So I will be Nancy and Lauren’s advocate for this single post only.

    I have 10 reasons why the Salzmans deserve compassion.


    1) The bible tells us not to judge anybody lest ye be judged too. Judging others is a sin and when you die, you risk being sent to Hell. Do you really want that?

    2) Nancy raised 2 daughters (or is it 3?). Who gives a fuck what the number is, the point is that she raised youngins and that’s more than Adolf Hitler did.

    3) Nancy is a registered nurse and helps to heal people. She has lived a life of service to others. To quote Bryan Adams: “Everything she does, she does it for you”

    4) Both Nancy and Lauren may have suffered mental abuse from Keith and been brainwashed out of their right mind. Does that not deserve compassion?

    5) Nancy is virtually friendless. She needs a group hug from this community.

    6) Lauren’s non-convict friends can be counted on one hand…..and with every new indictment that number dwindles.

    7) The members of this community are exceptionally biased and not very fair or balanced. Give them both a group hug!

    8) Nancy just lost her $520,000 nest egg for hiring a good attorney…….does that not deserve compassion?

    9) Both she and her daughter are likely to be indicted together. Most mothers and daughters are busy planning weddings or shopping trips together, but this mother/daughter pair are planning their perp walks together. They need a group hug from this community!

    10) Nancy’s other daughter is set to get married to a computer asshole who’s also likely to be indicted, thus probably delaying their wedding vows. Added to which, this couple actually met and fell in love while on PRISONER GUARD DUTY……while guarding a helpless Mexican girl who refused to fuck Keith. How romantic. Every couple should meet under those circumstances.

    In my humble opinion, some of you people have closed minds and are just not open to listening to the OTHER side of the story.

    NXIVM members are human beings too and deserve your sympathy and understanding!

    Have a nice day! 🙂

    • I think the fact that NS was so central to NXIVM’s operation/model and made money from her actions tends to lessen folks’s sympathy. Her actions would come across as rather mercenary and amoral, but rational (if the goal is monetary gain and power). In contrast, women in DOS are generally regarded as acting contrary to general human nature and elicit varying degrees of sympathy. We really won’t have a full picture until these women come out of NXIVM. If they come out sooner, they can elicit more sympathy, but it also suggesst that they were less beguiled. If they stay the course, most people will have less sympathy for them, but it really suggests that they deserve more sympathy.

      I think that your most important point is whom to these women have outside of NXIVM???

      • Well NS certainly didn’t starve herself into menopause. I have a tough time believing anyone who does that could be acting in their own interest. The Rajneesh cult told a lot of its female members to get sterilized, which they did, and it wasn’t until they were out of the cult that they regretted it and became very upset. Crazy stuff…

    • This is a thing of beauty! I do wonder why people think Nancy is concerned about Lauren and therefore she will flip on Raniere. This is a woman who willingly handed her children over, so no, I don’t think Nancy’s worried about her kids–if she had any motherly feelings at all, she would have kept both girls away from the cult in the first place..

  • I believe you are 100% right. I also think Moira knows who Keith is and may play right back and she will win. The Nxivm women who haven’t aged out yet are getting close, the chances of having children especially those who are branded is not likely and every day without Keith reality must be setting in, they don’t have jobs, no money coming in, unless Clare is still paying those she thinks will testify her way. That won’t last.

    • Still holding out hope for those three, God knows they deserve mercy more than Nancy or Clare ever will.Lauren and Karen might have an excuse, but not as solid as the three you mentioned, but not those first two.

  • The key to solving NXIVM’s financial crimes has always been to flip Nancy Salzman.
    Salzman is the one with all the computers in her house.
    Salzman is the NXIVM banker sitting on 500,000 dollars in cold, hard currency.

    Allison Mack is so whacked out she videotaped the branding rituals.
    The FBI has those tapes as well as the emails and text messages and the victims’ testimony.
    The government does not need Mack to flip.

    On the other hand Nancy Salzman, who is older and more mature, wants to save herself and her daughters Lauren and Michelle.
    Salzman is willing and smart enough to deal.
    And Nancy Salzman, who has been with NXIVM since the beginning, knows where the bodies are buried so to speak.

  • Is the DOJ going to wait until they finalize their discovery before they make arrests? Which means probably is August? I feel like they are giving the mice so much time to scatter and find a rock to hide under.

  • Keith doesn’t have crossed-eyes. He looks like a timid computer geek. But, he does have a PUMPKINHEAD.

    I do think someone major will flip. It could be Big Nancy aka the Godmother.

    All in good time…

  • They don’t have enough time in their lives to do the time for all their crimes.

  • We keep encountering the same problem in all these cases the push/pull factor. The threat of prison time is supposed to push these people to rational action, but they’ve been beguiled, embedded, and bludgeoned by cult-like thinking. Is N. Salzman more an opportunist than a believer? What about her daughter? Is there ANYONE trying to get these women out? It would be easy to imagine another DOS woman arrested and AM’s bail arrangement (confinement and control by family) as effective way to encourage a flip? (supposedly DOS women would not be as personally attached to Raniere).

    The fires have been burning in the palace for a while and the rats amidst the flames surely have something interfering with their common sense.

  • Lauren is absolutely culpable and should not get out of this situation escaping the time she deserves to serve in jail. She was right there at the top ring of the slave situations, recruiting, and controlling, and demeaning other women. She doesn’t even have a poor little child actor excuse to try to use.

    While I definitely believe Nancy knew what was going on, and just chose to turn a blind eye in order to continue lining her pockets, and maintain her comfortable lifestyle.

    I do wonder, though, whether Nancy has already long since flipped.

    Karen definitely deserves prison from locating, grooming and transporting young girls to be molested by Raniere. She is way past the statute of limitations for those crimes, though, unless the prosecutors can prove the ongoing conspiracy the entire length of time… That could be tough to do.

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” In addition, he was credited in the Starz docuseries 'Seduced' for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premieres on May 22, 2022.

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Contact Frank with tips or for help.
Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083
Email: frankparlato@gmail.com