What are the odds of someone committing suicide by kayaking?

What are the odds of two women connected to the same man to suddenly have breakdowns and both commit suicides within four months?

How often do young, attractive women commit suicide using a shotgun to their head?

How often, if ever, does an expert kayaker [or anyone for that matter] attempt suicide by paddling out to sea in a kayak?

And in the case of Kristin Snyder, she did not even use her own kayak; she stole one.

Frank Report is looking into these very improbable outcomes.

 

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There is a curious scene in the 1939 movie Double Indemnity..

The husband of an adulterous wife was murdered by her boyfriend, an insurance man.

it was meant to appears as an accident. The husband was believed to have fallen off a train.

The president of the insurance company, Mr. Norton, tries to suggest it is suicide so that the company is absolved from having to pay the claim.

Barton Keyes, his claims investigator, isn’t buying that it was a suicide:

Barton Keyes: You know, you, uh, oughta take a look at the statistics on suicide some time. You might learn a little something about the insurance business.

Edward S. Norton: Mister Keyes, I was RAISED in the insurance business.

Barton Keyes: Yeah, in the front office. Come now, you’ve never read an actuarial table in your life, have you? Why they’ve got ten volumes on suicide alone. Suicide by race, by color, by occupation, by sex, by seasons of the year, by time of day. Suicide, how committed: by poison, by firearms, by drowning, by leaps. Suicide by poison, subdivided by *types* of poison, such as corrosive, irritant, systemic, gaseous, narcotic, alkaloid, protein, and so forth; suicide by leaps, subdivided by leaps from high places, under the wheels of trains, under the wheels of trucks, under the feet of horses, from *steamboats*. But, Mr. Norton, of all the cases on record, there’s not one single case of suicide by leap from the rear end of a moving train. And you know how fast that train was going at the point where the body was found? Fifteen miles an hour. Now how can anybody jump off a slow-moving train like that with any kind of expectation that he would kill himself? No. No soap, Mr. Norton. We’re sunk, and we’ll have to pay through the nose, and you know it.

***

Now, Keith Raniere and the people who may choose to investigate the disappearance of Kristin Snyder, I ask you, “Of all the cases on record, how many cases of suicide are there by paddling out to sea by a kayaker [an experienced one at that?]”.

Her body was never found. Neither was the kayak.

All we really know is that her truck was there. There were two strange notes that did not directly say they were suicide notes.

And a kayak was stolen from a nearby shed.

It is not known if a handwriting analysis was ever done.

It might be pointed out – and this may mean nothing –  but Keith Raniere lived with an extraordinary forger, a woman so skilled at mimicking other people’s handwriting that some say she could fool experts.

I am referring to the late Pam Cafritz.

Stay tuned.

 

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