Overall, a slim majority (51%) of likely voters thought, regardless of their political support, President Trump would win re-election over Democratic nominee Joe Biden (43%), while 6% thought someone else would win the 2020 Presidential Election.
The subgroups most likely to believe the president would win were his base: Born Again Christians (Trump 68%/Biden 28%), NASCAR fans (Trump 68%/Biden 29%), union voters (Trump 61%/Biden 35%), and voters who recently lost a job (Trump 58%/Biden 34%). Most other demographics agreed Trump would beat Biden in 2020, regardless of their political ideology or support. Here is a breakdown of other important subgroups who thought Trump would beat Biden regardless of their political leanings: both men (Trump 57%/Biden 39%) and women (Trump 47%/Biden 46%) said Trump would win, as did voters living in the East (Trump 49%/Biden 45%), South (Trump 53%/Biden 42%) and Central/Great Lakes (Trump 56%/Biden 38%). The West region (Biden 49%/Trump 42%) disagreed with voters, overall, and felt Biden had the best chance to win in 2020.
Age was very one-sided. Younger voters aged 18-24 (Biden 48%/Trump 40%) and 18-29 (Biden 48%/Trump 42%) thought that Biden would win while the rest of voters aged 30+ felt Trump would win re-election (Trump 54%/41% Biden), regardless of their political support.
When it came to important swing voters, the race tightened up considerably. For example, Independent voters (Biden 45%/Trump 42%) were slightly more upbeat that Joe Biden would win, no matter their political support, as were moderates (Biden 51%/42% Trump), while among Hispanics there was a statistical tie at 45% and 46%, respectively, between Trump and Biden. When it came to suburban voters, Biden performed a little better with suburban females (Biden 45%/43% Trump) and Trump performed slightly better with all suburban voters (Trump 46%/44% Biden).
A thin majority (51%) of voters believe Democrats are more of a threat to an economic recovery in the U.S., while almost as many voters believe Republicans (49%) are the bigger threat to economic recovery.
The overall numbers are not so surprising, since most issues these days are nearly split down the middle and along partisan lines, but when we breakdown the demographics, certain group sentiments do not fall into normal patterns we have seen before with other partisan issues.
Men (53% Republicans/47% Democrats) were more likely to think Republicans were a bigger threat to an economic recovery in the U.S., while women (54% Democrats/46% Republicans) were more likely to think Democrats were a threat to economic recovery. Younger voters aged 18-24 (57% Democrats/43% Republicans) and 18-29 (55% Democrats/45% Republicans) believed Democrats were a hindrance to reviving the economy, while older voters aged 65+ (51% Democrats/49% Republicans) were more likely to be split as to who was the bigger threat to the U.S.’s economic recovery. Generation X voters (49% Democrats/51% Republicans) and voters aged 30-49 (48% Democrats/52% Republicans), who lately have approved of the President’s job, were more likely to believe (slightly) Republicans were more likely to stifle an economic recovery in the U.S.
Swing voters such as Independents (55% Democrats/45% Republicans) and Hispanics (57% Democrats/43% Republicans) thought Democrats were a bigger threat to an economic recovery, while other groups that will help decide the 2020 Presidential Election were more prone to be split on whether Democrats or Republicans were the bigger threat; these groups were suburban women (50% Democrats/50% Republicans), medium size city voters (50% Democrats/50% Republicans) and all suburban voters (50% Democrats/50% Republicans).
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
6/1/20 – 6/2/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1007 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1007 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby’s dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.