Overall, a slim majority (51%) of likely voters thought, regardless of their political support, President Trump would win re-election over Democratic nominee Joe Biden (43%), while 6% thought someone else would win the 2020 Presidential Election.
The subgroups most likely to believe the president would win were his base: Born Again Christians (Trump 68%/Biden 28%), NASCAR fans (Trump 68%/Biden 29%), union voters (Trump 61%/Biden 35%), and voters who recently lost a job (Trump 58%/Biden 34%). Most other demographics agreed Trump would beat Biden in 2020, regardless of their political ideology or support. Here is a breakdown of other important subgroups who thought Trump would beat Biden regardless of their political leanings: both men (Trump 57%/Biden 39%) and women (Trump 47%/Biden 46%) said Trump would win, as did voters living in the East (Trump 49%/Biden 45%), South (Trump 53%/Biden 42%) and Central/Great Lakes (Trump 56%/Biden 38%). The West region (Biden 49%/Trump 42%) disagreed with voters, overall, and felt Biden had the best chance to win in 2020.
Age was very one-sided. Younger voters aged 18-24 (Biden 48%/Trump 40%) and 18-29 (Biden 48%/Trump 42%) thought that Biden would win while the rest of voters aged 30+ felt Trump would win re-election (Trump 54%/41% Biden), regardless of their political support.
When it came to important swing voters, the race tightened up considerably. For example, Independent voters (Biden 45%/Trump 42%) were slightly more upbeat that Joe Biden would win, no matter their political support, as were moderates (Biden 51%/42% Trump), while among Hispanics there was a statistical tie at 45% and 46%, respectively, between Trump and Biden. When it came to suburban voters, Biden performed a little better with suburban females (Biden 45%/43% Trump) and Trump performed slightly better with all suburban voters (Trump 46%/44% Biden).
A thin majority (51%) of voters believe Democrats are more of a threat to an economic recovery in the U.S., while almost as many voters believe Republicans (49%) are the bigger threat to economic recovery.
The overall numbers are not so surprising, since most issues these days are nearly split down the middle and along partisan lines, but when we breakdown the demographics, certain group sentiments do not fall into normal patterns we have seen before with other partisan issues.
Men (53% Republicans/47% Democrats) were more likely to think Republicans were a bigger threat to an economic recovery in the U.S., while women (54% Democrats/46% Republicans) were more likely to think Democrats were a threat to economic recovery. Younger voters aged 18-24 (57% Democrats/43% Republicans) and 18-29 (55% Democrats/45% Republicans) believed Democrats were a hindrance to reviving the economy, while older voters aged 65+ (51% Democrats/49% Republicans) were more likely to be split as to who was the bigger threat to the U.S.’s economic recovery. Generation X voters (49% Democrats/51% Republicans) and voters aged 30-49 (48% Democrats/52% Republicans), who lately have approved of the President’s job, were more likely to believe (slightly) Republicans were more likely to stifle an economic recovery in the U.S.
Swing voters such as Independents (55% Democrats/45% Republicans) and Hispanics (57% Democrats/43% Republicans) thought Democrats were a bigger threat to an economic recovery, while other groups that will help decide the 2020 Presidential Election were more prone to be split on whether Democrats or Republicans were the bigger threat; these groups were suburban women (50% Democrats/50% Republicans), medium size city voters (50% Democrats/50% Republicans) and all suburban voters (50% Democrats/50% Republicans).
Zogby Analytics Poll Methodology
US Likely Voters
6/1/20 – 6/2/20
Zogby Analytics conducted an online survey of 1007 likely voters in the US.
Using internal and trusted interactive partner resources, thousands of adults were randomly invited to participate in this interactive survey. Each invitation is password coded and secure so that one respondent can only access the survey one time.
Using information based on census data, voter registration figures, CIA fact books and exit polls, we use complex weighting techniques to best represent the demographics of the population being surveyed. Weighted variables may include age, race, gender, region, party, education, and religion. The party breakdown for this survey is as follows: 36% Democrat, 36% Republican and 28% Independent/unaffiliated.
Based on a confidence interval of 95%, the margin of error for 1007 is +/- 3.1 percentage points. This means that all other things being equal, the identical survey repeated will have results within the margin of error 95 times out of 100.
Subsets of the data have a larger margin of error than the whole data set. As a rule we do not rely on the validity of very small subsets of the data especially sets smaller than 50-75 respondents. At that subset we can make estimations based on the data, but in these cases the data is more qualitative than quantitative.
Additional factors can create error, such as question wording and question order.
About Zogby Analytics:
Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally for its opinion research capabilities. Since 1984, Zogby has empowered clients with powerful information and knowledge critical for making informed strategic decisions.
The firm conducts multi-phased opinion research engagements for banking and financial services institutions, insurance companies, hospitals and medical centers, retailers and developers, religious institutions, cultural organizations, colleges and universities, IT companies and Federal agencies. Zogby’s dedication and commitment to excellence and accuracy are reflected in its state-of-the-art opinion research capabilities and objective analysis and consultation.
Regardless of anyone’s political views, this is not good news.
“TULSA, Okla. – At least two of the six people involved with planning President Donald Trump’s high-stakes campaign rally in Tulsa on Saturday who tested positive for coronavirus are members of the U.S. Secret Service, USA TODAY has learned.
Trump officials initially said six campaign “staff” tested positive for the virus but an official with knowledge of the matter speaking on the condition of anonymity confirmed at least two of the six are Secret Service agents.”
– USA Today
It is a certainty that a significant number of people attending the rally will be infectious, and from a purely medical point of view, that is a matter of concern.
The more the rioters act up, the less chance the Dems have. They show no sympathy or common sense.
The GOP might as well go on holiday. Antifa is stirring up more votes than any Trump rally can.
BTW, I will watch the Trump rally tonight with my girlfriend. But I might not go, not just because it is a long way
from me, but because Candi DeBaca (a Dem pol in CO) has called for people with the China/Cuomo virus to
go and infect people.
Why was she not arrested? In most nations, incitement to bio-terrorism is a crime. I guess not in Colorado.
Further, and I do have to check this, there is such incitement on craigslist. And yet again, there are fliers in NYC saying the same thing, insinuating further that there ought to be euthanasia.
I guess that last part frees up more $ for slackers to collect so they can buy organic weed.
It’s all crazy, so crazy that the Dems don’t even know it. A defeat in November might sober them up, but then again,they might start fresh riots.
Through Covid we’ve all had a tutorial on “how to lie with statistics” — quoting the title of the decades old best seller.
But, hey, another good example of it is always welcome.
“Zogby Analytics is respected nationally and internationally”
Right…once again a formidable source of fakeness… FR provides only the freshest BS news.
“Facebook has removed a number of posts and ads run by Donald Trump’s re-election campaign that featured a symbol used by the Nazis for violating its “policy against organized hate.”
The inverted red triangle was used by the Nazis to identify political prisoners in concentration camps during the Holocaust.
– Julia Carrie Wong
I wonder how many of our honourable friends will be tempted to say it’s OK because the Holocaust never happened…
Naughty of me to say that, but I allow myself a bit of naughtiness occasionally.
It seems the nixed Facebook ads claim “Antifa” — the phantom, nascent anti-fascist movement — oddly uses alleged Nazi symbols — like the inverted red triangle — to promote their anti-fascist agenda. According to the Trump campaign. And AG Barr per emails sent out claiming the same.
Hmmm. Didn’t [redacted] use an inverted red triangle as his icon on FR? When I and, I believe, Niceguy inquired about the inverted red triangle, [redacted] said it was a symbol on his hunting rifle.
OMG, could our [redacted] be ANTIFA??!! AND he’s in Oklahoma I believe he said.
[Redacted] fess up. Seriously, dude, are you an anti-fascist “terrorist” or what?
I’m anti-fascist, anti-communist, and opposed to anything that undermines democracy.
Paul, on the Frank Report, if you critique the GOP, you will be slapped with the libtard monicker even if you have been a life long Republican, like myself.
Didn’t you hear the Republican senator John McCain, a war hero none the less, was a traitor to the Republican Party?
Why Shadow State voted for Donald Trump in 2016.
Why Shadow State will vote for Donald Trump in 2020.
Keep America Great!
And nothing got better for YOU.
Shadow you only have two choices that are in stark contrast to one another. An exhaustive explanation is unnecessary.
It’s like choosing between Coke and Pepsi back in the day. All comes down to matter of taste.
People come up with a laundry list of reasons why they vote the way they do or why their political beliefs are what they are.
Libtards and conservatives both do it.
Conservatism and Liberalism are two sides of the same coin….Idealism.
Conservatism and liberalism are man made construct built upon a compost heap.
I prefer realism.
I am mostly apolitical and lean slight more in the conservative camp….
…….solely because conservatism is closer to reality than liberalism.
In other words, you’re a RINO. LOL
You do not redact the highly offensive term RINO?
RINO stands for……
………[redacted] in Name Only
Takes one to know one, [redacted]!
That’s deep, Niceguy. Agree.
I am a member of an almost extinct species: A Moderate Conservative. Which means a Conservative that doesn’t froth at the mouth.
How is tricks?
Get lucky and send someone to the Mikveh lately?
I believe in the right of Israel to exist, but [redacted]
Look at Israel on a map. It’s only friend, in the area, is the sea. Peace is the only long term solution for Israel.
Calling the “settlers radicals” is wrong?
They make illegal settlements all the time, not according to the United Nations, but illegal to Israeli laws.
The settlers believe Israel should expand as far as stated in the Old Testament. You think that’s not radical?
Nothing I said that was redacted was antisemitic. I am stating this fact because the editing redaction makes it look like I said something anti-Semitic.
Don’t put that label on me.
BTW I am not a fan of the United Nations whatsoever.
It doesn’t matter who wins. Nothing will change in any way that improves the quality of life for US citizens.
The rhetoric may change, but the average US citizen will gain nothing.
There will be no better infrastructure, no better education, no better schools, no better healthcare, no more money in their pockets, no more of anything.
That is exactly how it will be, no matter who wins.
WRONG on all counts. LOL
There have been massive improvements with Trump’s first term, even though the Libtards have come along kicking and screaming like little brats. LOL
I can’t wait for Trump to be reelected and pour gas on the fire, hopefully with a Republican Senate and House. LOL
Biden, or more accurately his “minders,” would take America back to the Stone Age/Obama years. LOL
When we see comments like this, it display perfectly the kind of idiots vote for trump…
I’m between “is he a troll or a genuine idiot”.
We have to remember that Shadow posted a TV commercial as the reason why he voted for Trump.
It’s easy to call someone names, which of Trump’s accomplishments are you against: https://www.whitehouse.gov/trump-administration-accomplishments/ LOL
You are sadly right…the system is so broken that no matter who wins, the citizen lose.
It’s not exclusive to USA actually but it’s just more visible.
But here it’s about the lesser bad choice…you have on one side a useless guy who is bringin another world war closer everyday…
someone who destroyed further the economy of USA, someone who made of all the allies enemies…
And on the other side, a man full of empty promises …but atleast, he will not declare another world war and will not make thing worst.
This is a lost battle , no matter what.
It’s hard to tell when you’re referring to Trump or Biden. LOL