Raniere is Breaking Down Physically – Working Hard on His Appeal – as He Awaits Sentencing

Prison life is generally boring and monotonous.

It’s even worse when you’ve already been convicted – and you’re just waiting to find out exactly how much more time you’re going to be spending behind bars.

That’s been Keith Raniere’s life for the past five months.

And he still has two more months to go until he finds out what U.S. District Court Judge Nicholas G. Garaufis deems to be a fair sentence for someone who was convicted of one count each of Racketeering, Racketeering Conspiracy, Forced Labor Conspiracy, Wire Fraud Conspiracy, Sex Trafficking, Sex Trafficking Conspiracy, and Attempted Sex Trafficking.

All Raniere knows at this point is that his prison sentence will be somewhere between 15 years and life.

Exactly how long he’ll be in prison – and where he will serve his time – will be decided without his opinion being taken into consideration.

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You Can’t Start Counting Down Until You Know How Long You’ll Be in

Once a prisoner knows their sentence, they can start counting down how long it will be until they get out.

Some start keeping track of how many days they’ve been in – with each such day denoted by a checkmark on a piece of paper.

Others create an actual “Countdown Schedule” on which they start by listing the total number of days they expect to be in prison – and then reduce that number for each day they’ve been in (e.g., 1,000, 999, 998, etc.).

But Raniere can’t start counting down just yet because he has yet to be sentenced.

And so for him – and for every other prisoner in that same situation – time is really a vague concept right now.

Days tend to get defined by what food is being served for lunch.

Wednesdays are hamburger days – which is one of the most popular lunches served in federal prison.

Thursdays are chicken days – another very popular lunch meal.

Saturdays and Sundays always feature some sort of eggs – usually the scrambled kind that are made from some sort of powdered product and that have absolutely zero taste.

But other than recognizing what day it is by the food that’s being served, these prisoners often don’t have any real sense of time.

Today was just like yesterday – and tomorrow will be just like today. That’s life in federal prison.

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Meanwhile, Raniere’s Physical Decline Continues

Based on the latest report we’ve received from MDC, Raniere is continuing to experience a variety of physical problems.

His wrist – which was supposedly injured when he slipped on a wet floor in his cell while stretching and practicing his judo moves in the middle of the night – is not healing correctly and will likely need surgery.

But the crack medical staff at MDC have determined that there’s no need to have that surgery done until Raniere gets assigned to his regular prison.

Depending on how bad that wrist injury really is, it’s entirely possible that Raniere could be temporarily assigned to the Fort Devens Federal Medical Center in Devens, MA – which just happens to be where John Tighe has been serving his time.

Talk about ironic…

First, he gets sent to MDC – which is where one of his sworn enemies, Joe O’Hara, spent 28 months.

And now he might end going to Fort Devens – where another of his sworn enemies, John Tighe, can throw him a “Welcome Home” party.

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New Diagnosis Indicates Raniere Has Very Little Sense of Smell

In news that will not shock anyone who ever spent any significant amount of time in his presence, it also appears that Raniere has some sort of neurological problem that interferes with his sense of smell.

Known for going days without bothering to shower or bathe, Raniere often smelled like the inside of a garbage dumpster in mid-August.

And his breath could usually be detected from at least 10 feet away.

Now, based on recent test results, it appears that Raniere actually has very little, if any, sense of smell.

The Bureau of Prisons will probably not do anything to resolve this latest medical problem – which is not considered to be life-threatening.

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Still in Gerbil Mode as He Works on Appeal

According to the latest report that we’ve received from MDC, Raniere is still in constant motion as he paces back and forth at MDC.

The only time he sits for an extended period of time is when it’s mealtime – for which he has adopted what has been described as a “Pavlovian response”.

He is often first-in-line for meals and usually tries to cajole the servers into giving him the largest portion available or some extra of whatever is being served.

And Raniere has also been purchasing every sweet-treat that’s available from the MDC Commissary.

All of which has led to a noticeable weight-gain for the now somewhat rotund Raniere.

Maybe he’s going for that Buddha look…

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“But My Appeal Is a Slam Dunk”

Raniere has told anyone who will listen that he has “a 100% chance” of getting his conviction overturned because of the numerous “fuck-ups” of Judge Garaufis before and during his trial.

Whether Raniere really believes that to be true is unknown.

He is actively going through the transcripts of the trial to identify “errors” that were made by Judge Garaufis.

And it appears that he really believes that the guilty verdict on all seven counts is going to be magically over-turned by the Second Circuit Appellate Division.

Unfortunately for Keith, the “data” suggests that his odds of winning a complete reversal of his conviction – and on getting a new trial on all seven counts of which he was convicted – is about 25-to 1.

The most recent study of decisions of trial courts in the Second Circuit revealed that only 3.78% of them are overturned on appeal.

Even Raniere, who claims to be a mathematics savant, has to look at those odds – and go “Oh, shit!”

Worse yet is the fact that Judge Garaufis appears to have a very low “overturn rate” – especially on cases that were decided by juries (It’s almost impossible to get hard data on this topic – and we all know how important “data” is to Raniere – but the data we have been able to access suggests that Raniere has little chance of getting the verdict in his trial overturned because of any errors on the part of Judge Garaufis).

So, even though Raniere thinks that he will definitely get a new trial, the odds against that happening are actually pretty high.

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One Piece of “Good News” for Raniere

There is, however, one piece of “good news” in the latest report of Raniere’s life at MDC.

He finally has a pair of glasses that work.

I’m setting November 20th as the date by which those glasses will magically disappear – much like Raniere’s clothing would magically appear when he was still running the NXIVM sex-slaver cult.

Anyone who is over 18 and who wants to bet whether those glasses are around after November 20th should contact Frank Report in order to arrange for a wager.

I can use the extra money for the upcoming holidays.

K.R. Claviger