To Flip Or Not To Flip? That Is THE Question For Many…


One of the hardest things for The Vanguard (AKA Keith Raniere) to accept about his new reality is that at least one of his co-defendants is, according to the AUSA Moira Kim Penza, close to working out a plea deal.

Nancy Salzman

The speculation is that it’s Nancy Salzman who’s ready to play “Queen For A Day” and answer all the questions that federal investigators would like to ask her about Raniere and the illegal enterprise that, along with the help of many others (especially Clare Bronfman and Sara Bronfman-Igtet), he’s operated for almost two decades.

That makes sense for lots of reasons:

– Keith unceremoniously replaced her with Clare as the Queen Bee in his operation;

– Because Keith declared that she has issues with money, Clare put her on an allowance – and basically made her beg for money every month;

– Keith reneged on his promise to impregnate her daughter, Lauren – which likely means that Lauren will never experience the joys of motherhood;

– Keith chose to make Allison Mack his #1 Slave rather than Lauren;

– One of her daughters has already been charged – and there is a strong possibility that the Feds could also charge her other daughter, Michelle, and Michelle’s husband, Ben Meyers;

– Nancy is supposedly dealing with a “life-threatening illness” – and would probably prefer not to die in prison; and

– Nancy has lots of information to trade for a reduced prison sentence.

But as he walks around all day in his cellblock – or lies awake on his bunk at night – Vanguard has got to be wondering about who else might flip on him. And, unfortunately for him, there are a lot of possibilities for him to consider:

Here are a few with our odds:


Lauren Salzman (90% Probability): She’s gone out of her way to avoid eye contact with Vanguard in their last two court appearances. If Nancy is cutting a deal, wouldn’t it make sense for her to include Lauren in it?


Michelle Salzman-Meyers (90% Probability): If Nancy’s going to save one daughter, she can’t very well abandon the other.


Ben Meyers (90% Probability): In addition to whatever help he can get from Nancy, he also has a lot of valuable info about all of Raniere’s computer-related crimes.


Allison Mack (10% Probability): Although some think that being away from Raniere will help clear her head, I think she’s simply too indoctrinated to turn on Keith. And she has this Joan-of-Arc self-image that can only be fulfilled if she “stands by her man” and goes to trial – and prison – with him.


Kathy Russell

Kathy Russell (10% Probability): In addition to not being very bright, Kathy has the extra impediment of having totally abandoned her family and non-NXIVM friends for the last 15+ years. At this point, the only way for her to justify all her poor decisions is to see this thing through and go to prison.


Karen Unterreiner

Karen Unterreiner (80% Probability): The person who many consider to the real brains behind Raniere’s criminal enterprise has been a virtual ghost since Raniere’s arrest (Many believe that she’s already flipped). It’s hard to believe that the Feds would bother arresting a low-level bookkeeper like Kathy Russell and let Karen off the hook.


Karen Abney

Karen Abney (50% Probability): After she replaced Kathy Russell as NXIVM’s de facto Chief Financial Officer, she became aware of a lot of Raniere’s financial crimes. And she’s got $25,000 tied up in Kathy Russell’s bail bond.


Matt McMorris

Matt McMorris (50% Probability): The man who once worked for Barbara Bouchey and who fraudulently claimed to be a licensed CPA handled all the financial paperwork for many of Raniere’s shell companies – and for the Bronfman sisters’ phony charities. He has enough inside info to make himself a deal, provided that he does so before he gets indicted.


Steve Ose

Steve Ose (50% Probability): He’s been involved with Raniere’s criminal activities since the Consumer Buyline days – and could provide a treasure trove of information about all of Raniere’s computer-related crimes. But he’s still hiding out in Texas – and hoping that the Feds have forgotten about him.


Jim Del Negro

James Del Negro (30% Probability): He’s the guy who’s on the paperwork for lots of Raniere’s companies (There are so many that he couldn’t even remember some of them when he was cross-examined by Susan Dones during her bankruptcy case). But a lot of people think that Jim is just too dumb to parlay his knowledge into a decent plea deal.


Sara Bronfman and Baset Igtet with one of their babies.

Sara Bronfman (60% Probability): Sara is a mom now – and, although not especially bright, she’s got her hubby, the would-be dictator of Libya, to counsel her through the flipping process. And she’s probably willing to pay $100 million or so in fines and penalties in order to remain in Europe for the rest of her life.


Clare Bronfman

But Vanguard’s biggest fear of all has got to be that Clare Bronfman finally comes to her senses and realizes how Raniere has played her for a fool for the last 15 years. If that happens – and I think it’s at least a 30% probability right now – it’s game over for The Vanguard.


No recent pictures of Keith Raniere are available since cameras are prohibited in court. This is a recent court sketch of him in court.

About the author

K.R. Claviger


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  • What if clare were to remember that she likes horses better than people. Its not an unusual sentiment, not irrational and at least her love of horses resulted in positive progressions in the days before she was led
    to the murky water by her sister..

    What if she decides she didn’t drink entirely of her own accord, but felt increasingly disorientated, increasingly pressured enticed and eventually submitted.

    What if she were too naive, unworldly, given her rarified upbringing, to understand what was being played out by the claque of hardened grifters masquerading as the very soul of charm, spontaneity, compassion, integrity; the chief grifter with his
    soft slightly crosseyed stare..

    What if, even as she bugged her own father, blamed him for keith’s fiscal farrago, pursued enemies like an inquisitor, she was only acting out of stockholm syndrome, strongly induced by having her integrations healed so regularly , by so many, possibly for the first time in her life.

  • Ran across this today. Why does it smell like NXIVM?
    Todd and a dating site penned by a reclusive dyslexic couple with ties to the C.F.

    “I have been looking into the San Fransisco address listed in the Wikileaks Final Report and found something possibly big, who may be behind the Assange Pedophile attacks a corporation called Premise Data Corporation” full text with links

    Report T&C Network Solutions and

    T and C Archives*/

  • Sara’s baby is adorable! How could any mother or her Auntie Clare forsake her future for a Jew-hating sex maniac sleeze bucket?!

  • IDK, sounds like there was a “show” (and could have been just that – a show) of solidarity between the women at the last hearing in that none eyed Keith.

    Plus, Lauren and Allison were dressed like butch, bobbsie twins.

    Agnofilo’s out to prove the branding was all just a crazy, mixed up sorority scheme hatched by whacky Allie Mack — which was prolly Keith’s premeditated “Ali-bye” all along, if caught.

    Maybe they’re all going with the plan for Ali to “take the fall” insofar as the sex trafficking, forced labor charges go.

    I agree, Nancy is dealing but may be so ill as to loose her memory post-plea deal. …What if?

    I’d say there’s a 99.9345 chance Allison starts hearing voices soon.

    • Hi to Heidi😁

      I have a few questions for you! I read your article on your sister and everything and I want to say how sorry I am about her death .
      I was interested in hearing more about Keith. I think he’s extremely sexy and I wanted to know how he is in bed. Tell the truth, we all know you were screwing him too, and sharing him with your sister! So come on, don’t be shy, give us all the juicy details. Was it like a threesome thing? Or did they usually have big orgies…and did you guys film the action?
      People are interested in that kind of shit, Heidi!!

        • It’s just Scott Johnson attacked posters under various names. He can’t even keep track of them all, and sometimes replies as Flowers when he didn’t originally attack the person under that name.
          He also makes posts to support his own opinions, and argues with himself at times to try to prop up the facade.

          • In your dreams. I’m the only person on this website, except for Frank, to use my own verified name. Everyone else is a mere coward. I haven’t posted a single comment on this website that wasn’t under my own name. COWARD.

          • Lol! If you’re talking about me, I’m most definitely not Scott. But is Scott as HOT as Keith is? Does anyone know? Has anyone posted a picture of him here? I hear hes from Texas , and they say everything is bigger in Texas, so I hope that’s true!!!
            Please submit your pictures here under the hashtag


          • Scott, there is a reason a lot of people don’t use their real names. Unlike Amway, NXIVM is a horrible cult and some don’t want to face the repercussion of using their names. Call us EXer what you want but most of us have more guts than you will every have no matter how fat you get.

          • I already know the reason, you’re a bunch of cowards. As a group, you could flood the internet with so many people that NXIVM couldn’t keep up with the numbers. Plus, they are on their heels trying to stay out of prison. NOW is the time to come forward, just like I did with Amway, a multi-billion dollar/year scam, and I beat them. But you’re cowards, so stay hidden.

          • This thread about imposters got me thinking – and this is a question for Frank since this is his platform – is there a way to verify that a poster is truly an ex nex? Frank likely has far much to do to confirm each regular commentor is who they say they are but I wonder if an indicator of some sort at least would give a layer of authenticity. However, I suppose if Frank is the ultimate verifier then that would eliminate commentors like Pea who truly are still with the program and don’t want to reveal themselves. Just a thought.

      • Shame on you, Flowers a.k.a. Scott Johnson. Can’t get a reaction out of other people so you turn on someone else?
        Put down the bottle, and get help.

        • What?! Ok, I lied … I just wanted to see some hot pictures of myself. But if you dont have any, send some pics of Clare ….nekked! Veeerry nekked!
          You people are making a MOCKERY of this fine site!!!
          You should be ashamed of yourselves.!
          Ban them Frank!
          Quickly! Before they send any pictures of Clare!

      • You are evil Ryann s. Simply evil. Everyone grieves in different ways, we’ve all seen the stories of all of the adults who fell for creepy Keith. To attack someone who lost her sister because of Keith makes you worse than him. He’s psycho who should have been stopped years ago. You on the other hand are just a terrible human being.

        • Am I? Well, I have a feeling you don’t like my fake name. But you should, because you’re the one who chose it!
          Remember when you were Bianca? And Laura? And lots of other fine names…so many fake names, so many dumb games.
          Are you getting tired of playing get?
          Cuz I’ll keep playing until you get what you deserve.
          What name will you choose next?
          Caro maybe?
          Or gadfly?

        • Heidi (and all of you, for that matter) could be doing something constructive by helping educate millions of people about other MLM scams, but you want to focus on things that are already essentially over. Talk about simply evil and terrible human beings.

          • First off, Scott, NXIVM may have used MLM techniques, but that’s not why they’re on trial here. MLMs are reprehensible, and they are a scam, but no one is reading/commenting on this blog because they’re outraged at the MLM-iness of NXIVM. Most of us not involved in the cult are here because it is a dark, seedy story, rife with sex, mysterious deaths, physical and emotional violence, brainwashing, involving famous and/or powerful people, etc. People (myself included) come to this site because it’s a bizarre and compelling story. And even tho Frank publishes – let’s face it – a fair amount of dross, it is definitely punctuated with actual useful news sometimes (sorry, Frank).

            Second, you, Scott, are not here to “educate millions of people” about other MLM scams. If you were, you wouldn’t be wasting your time here belittling people and pettily pointing out their typos. This is a high-profile case, and you are, to put it bluntly, an attention whore. You want to drive people to your own sites that (unfortunately for you) most of the people visiting THIS site are likely to have little interest in. That is why you use your real name. It’s not because you’re brave. It’s because you so desperately want to be relevant.

            And on the topic of “cowards” hiding (as I proudly do) behind pseudonyms, let me ask you, Scott, do you have a job? I mean a job with a boss or clients where you make money? I do. “Smart” people who have families and jobs either minimize or carefully manage their online presence. I am careful about the digital footprints I leave. You are not. So either you literally have nothing to lose, or you yourself are maybe…not so smart?

            And on the topic of “educating millions” about MLM scams: The fact that NXIVM used MLM techniques is NOT the point here. This isn’t Amway drawing you in with the promise that you can make a fortune getting other people to sell cleaning products. Amway and its offshoots have scammed more people than NXIVM ever did, but to my knowledge, they’ve never branded women, held someone hostage, or wanted to take over Mexico. Both organizations are nefarious in their own ways, but the scandal of NXIVM was not that their recruits had to then recruit to build a pyramid (some might consider evangelical Christianity a pyramid scheme by that definition). It’s all the OTHER shit that NXIVM did that is the scandal. So to use NXIVM as the argument against MLMs, of all things, is missing the point and kind of dumb.

            AND one other thing. One of the big differences between Amway and NXIVM is that, to my knowledge, unlike Amway, people were not signing up for NXIVM because they thought they could make money off it. They were largely initially motivated by very deep human needs for connection, answers, meaning, purpose, healing and to find success in their own lives. They were searching. And to the extent that NXIVM fulfilled that, those are the things that made it easy to get sucked in and so difficult to leave. It wasn’t stupidity, depravity or greed – it was the drive of basic human needs (just like your [and all of our] need to feel relevant).

            Having myself been raised in a religion that had cult-like qualities, I can easily see how all this can happen. As such, the only person in this story that I have absolutely no sympathy for is Raniere. I think he is a bonafide sociopath. Everyone else is to one degree or another, a victim. Not that they shouldn’t be held accountable for their respective wrongs, but I have some empathy for all of them.

            I even have empathy for the fact that you were scammed by an MLM, and the fact that you displace your anger all over other commenters in an attempt to feel superior.

            PS, if NXIVM is a thing that is “essentially over,” why are you here?

            PPS, if you “beat” Amway, why is it still there?

          • Well said. Well written. Well done. Always appreciate your input, wish you would write more editorial.

    • Fall gal Kathy Russell didn’t get the memo on the hearing dress code or googling Keith, either. Fall girls will fall again and again, sigh!

      • Yes, not to leave out Kathy Russell as, true, looks like she was and always has been. She probably never “enjoyed” Keith to herself longer than at the last hearing. Maybe “RICO” laws will save her even if she’s not even rich enough to get her own lawyer.

    • I thought they all looked awful, like reality is catching up. Doesn’t matter how many lawyers they waste money on, a losing battle is a losing battle. I think their lawyers know it but Agnifilo has to work with Keith who’s trying to run the show behind the scenes. He was not prepared for the trial delay, like his lawyer is avoiding telling him little details like that. When you’ve bought your freedom for so long who thinks someone’s gonna start following the law.

      • Not only that, (and I know these aren’t trial proceeding) but, has anyone told them how to dress for court? Or is their outfitting from the garment cubby at Whole Foods meant to send a message of, “totes sane…nothing to see here?”

        And wtf with BACKPACK, Allie. You are 35-f$&king years old. Anyway, what do you need to carry TO COURT that requires a backpack?! I’ve been to Kings County Court and I just see that footage of you coming and can only think, “Jesus, she’s going to tie up security for half an hour! Those poor suckers behind her!”

  • If the Feds can flip Nancy and Lauren it will be a one-two punch that will knock out Rainier and his gang.
    Nancy has her inside information on the day to day operations of the cult and its finances.
    Lauren can fill in the details on the DOS slave harem.

    Frankly Allison knows too little about the financial operations and it might too late for Clare to flip.

    The Feds wild focus their fire on the Unholy Trinity of Rainier, Cuella Bronfman and Mack

  • No good person “flips” to save themselves. It is unethical. Nancy is a criminal but Keith will still prevail. He will be acquitted.

    • So Pea Brain,
      What is wrong with telling the truth?
      Who was a criminal before meeting the Vandump aka Keith Raniere?
      Maybe Nancy Salzman was for billing her counseling clients through someone who was approved to bill insurance companies (since Nancy was not approved in any state as a clinical therapist.
      Other than that, no one was involved in criminal activities.
      Raniere needs to take full responsibility for his actions in order to heal his Ethical Breaches against those who believed in him.

      • He has not ethical breaches. He is fully unified and that is the secret behind this all. You are not unified. The judge nor the jury is unified. He is and that judgement cannot be bit imperfect unless he himself ordains it. Be advised : you know now what you speak.

    • Pea:
      So branding and enslaving women is hunky dory in your book but talking with the FBI about criminal activity is wrong!
      This case is developing like most conspiracy and RICO cases.

  • I am torn between wanting Tighe to get the transplant he needs, and wanting Ben to have to tell the truth about which one of them planted all the child pornography on his computer as part of any deal.

    I think most of the probabilities look pretty realistic, but I think JDN is likely lower than 30%. He literally has nothing else in his life, even though I think his family would welcome him back if he flipped.

  • I would think that once the first person ‘flips’ others will quickly follow. Whoever flips first has to deal with whatever retribution comes from those still loyal to Vanguard. It might be a better deal to be first, but it’s also the most dangerous position to be in.

  • These odds will go to zero when one or two of them flip, the Feds don’t want or even need all of them to flip, just one or two. I wouldn’t count on those flipping to get a good deal either, just not as bad of punishment as they would have received.

  • I would think that once the first person ‘flips’, more will follow quickly. I know we keep talking about how the first to flip gets the best deal, but it also means they get the worst of whatever retribution comes from those still loyal to Vanguard.

    • Does not matter what she does. She is going down as hard as Vanguard. Her money financed way too much corruption and evil. She is toast.

    • I actually think it takes a certain amount of guts to pull the plug on yourself sober.

      I don’t think he has the fortitude to do it.

      I think he would just start trying to hypnotise his fellow inmates to see if he can get some protectors that way, and keep filing appeals until either the appeals process or Clare’s $ has run out.

      • It seems like most of the criminals and brainwashed are women. Do men succumb to his charm as well? I wonder how he’s handling prison, where there are no women and his pedophilia may be common knowledge. If he were getting “rammed”, would it bother him?

        He really rings my bullshit detector, plus he’s not attractive, so I don’t see the appeal at all.

    • The sooner Raniere takes himself out the better. It would save taxpayers a lot of money and there would be less reason for others to flip, which means they would end up in prison for a very long time, which is what they deserve and would protect society from repeating their crimes.

About the Author

Frank Parlato is an investigative journalist.

His work has been cited in hundreds of news outlets, like The New York Times, The Daily Mail, VICE News, CBS News, Fox News, New York Post, New York Daily News, Oxygen, Rolling Stone, People Magazine, The Sun, The Times of London, CBS Inside Edition, among many others in all five continents.

His work to expose and take down NXIVM is featured in books like “Captive” by Catherine Oxenberg, “Scarred” by Sarah Edmonson, “The Program” by Toni Natalie, and “NXIVM. La Secta Que Sedujo al Poder en México” by Juan Alberto Vasquez.

Parlato has been prominently featured on HBO’s docuseries “The Vow” and was the lead investigator and coordinating producer for Investigation Discovery’s “The Lost Women of NXIVM.” Parlato was also credited in the Starz docuseries "Seduced" for saving 'slave' women from being branded and escaping the sex-slave cult known as DOS.

Additionally, Parlato’s coverage of the group OneTaste, starting in 2018, helped spark an FBI investigation, which led to indictments of two of its leaders in 2023.

Parlato appeared on the Nancy Grace Show, Beyond the Headlines with Gretchen Carlson, Dr. Oz, American Greed, Dateline NBC, and NBC Nightly News with Lester Holt, where Parlato conducted the first-ever interview with Keith Raniere after his arrest. This was ironic, as many credit Parlato as one of the primary architects of his arrest and the cratering of the cult he founded.

Parlato is a consulting producer and appears in TNT's The Heiress and the Sex Cult, which premiered on May 22, 2022. Most recently, he consulted and appeared on Tubi's "Branded and Brainwashed: Inside NXIVM," which aired January, 2023.

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Contact Frank with tips or for help.
Phone / Text: (305) 783-7083